“defector Sergei Skripal, in Britain, and the Trump administration didn’t react”. Not correct. There was a very large number of expulsions from the Washington Russian embassy. Although it is reported that Donald felt he was misled about this and angry. However the point stood and this was very supportive of the UK and pissed off Putin. There were no more ‘Skripols’ to my knowledge and the appalling mortality for any ex Russian citizen in the UK appears to join the general mortality curve (there were an extraordinary number of unexplained deaths prior to the Salisbury poisonings amongst this group).
Like the Israelis (many parallels) the Americans (I speak for what I see around me) believe the U.S. military can crush Russia if they had a mind too. If we REALLY wanted to boot Russia out of Ukraine we could. (I think we could have in the beginning). But we haven't. If the U.S. fielded its Army today it would be crushed, "drone meat" as you say. It has no answer to that, no experience. How do we know this?
o. The M-1s ended up trophies on Moscow Square. (the new ones are better, riiigghhht ;))
o. F-16s have so far not made a difference.
o. Where are the promises American best-tech drones on the battlefield? Nowhere. They're all Chinese, Turkish, etc.
o. The "Excalibur" what happened to that?
The dirty little secret is the U.S. has a military built to fight yesterday's war. Even if Ukraine was given F-35s so what? It's already firing plenty of cruise missiles. How would they change the Donbas? I can't see that they would.
The simple fact is it takes dead-bodies to take territory. Same as it always was. Americans have forgotten that. But in a way, Trump recognizes that simple fact. He recognizes that Ukrainians don't vote so he simply doesn't care. Americans would rather COMPLAIN about Trump than send their kids to fight a war in Europe. Can't blame them. Still...
The Dollar gets stronger and stronger but it's like a virus, it gets expensive enough and it kills its hosts. Okay, beginning to digress... :) We're in WWIII. Trump will just make it worse in a different way than Biden. Americans, ultimately, are not defenders of democracy. They're just selfish humans like everyone else. Worse, they feel entitled, righteous. Like the Israelis, they too will find themselves battling outside forces, the blowback a worsening of a civil war within.
Max you paint a gloomy picture. I don’t think the US would fight the war in the way Russia does. Russia does what it does because of long standing equipage and doctrine. It is not the US military way. Drone warfare at scale and in miniature is certainly something to contend with for the US but really once again would likely be rendered moot if the US civilian command would stop pissing in its boots and truly unleash the US military. In any case there will be no US troop involvement in Ukraine and I agree with you wholeheartedly that Trump will just mess it up in a different way than Biden. Your comment that the US looks out for itself is spot on and I submit that all nations do only this. When goals are shared cooperation occurs but in Ukraine Americans struggle to see shared interest. A better president could easily make the case but alas that seems unlikely.
I often point out that the biggest miscalculation of Hitler was the belief Germany had enough oil to meet its military objectives. Or, and this is the weird parallel, that "synthetic oil" would be able to meet its needs. What was synthetic oil but just a precursor to fracking!!! Anyway, synthetic oil didn't meet Germany's needs so its disastrous efforts to gain control of the Caucasus oil fields.
You, I, Stefan and other readers here can talk about this. 99% of Americans? We'd sound like complete nutjobs!
Yet this is what I see happening...again. The U.S. will start to realize it is running out of fracking oil and will turn to the Middle East again or the Caucasus. Getting it from the Ukrainians would be easier. If Ukraine loses, well, I don't think I need to explain to you ;)
Pay a little now, or pay in the millions of dead later.
Yes, I didn't mean anything would happen near term. But I do believe we could face problems in 5-10 years. If reserves were so healthy why would we dip into the Strategic Petroleum Reserves? Seems a political salve (keep oil prices down) with long-term consequences. I don't know what to make of Ukraine's resources. Thanks for links!
Everybody builds armies to fight yesterdays war. I think definetly the US could beat Russia in a conventional war in Ukraine, but they would face a steep and coslt learning curve. And while I agree US is not so superior it believes itself to be (but nobody really are) your example of F16 is not very good. There are simply too few to really make a difference. And the air war now is more missiles than planes. But this is all armchair general discussion. We will not see any direct confrontation, that is dampede sure. So to some degree this doesnt really matter. Us will not committ. They will not support. Europe is of coursing taking that measure.
You are welconme to the Club! Armchairs are nice, can only reccomend them! I honestly wish all generals did all their figthing in armchairs and theory!
I believe the U.S. has insufficient forces currently in Europe to oppose Russian aggression, however the American way of war fighting still works. Take control of the skies. Destroy the anti-air capability of the enemy. Bomb the shit out of the poor unlucky fellows on the ground. Send in the army to fight against a relatively helpless and demoralized enemy which is unable to move or supply itself.
My read is the Biden Administration would have looked at this from the start and the AF said, "We might knock out all of their SAMs or they might knock out all of our aircraft. We can't say for sure until we try and if we try no going back."
My thanks again Stefan, detailed and informative as always.
The information about the Ukrainian high command issues is particularly interesting, and concerning. Other analysts have made the same points; too much micro management from too high up.
A lack of a divisional command, this late on in such a massive war, that's a considerable oversight. It's not helping things. It needs fixed, and fast, as well as a concentrated attempt to apply 'Lessons learnt' on the battlefield. Else those lessons will be lost.
Thanks for your analysis as always. I like your analysis and the Photo of the new US proconsul. I think he will have problems getting a deal here. One reason is of course Putins insatiability. He will not simply stop, reckognizing this as a great opportunity to demand more. Regarding Ukraine, I guess they will talk and try to stall. But yes, he will be a problem. Europe is committed, although there always will be some idiot in some country running along on some anti war/pro Russian strategy. (Next up? Romania.) This is managable as long as the big nations doesnt listen.
“defector Sergei Skripal, in Britain, and the Trump administration didn’t react”. Not correct. There was a very large number of expulsions from the Washington Russian embassy. Although it is reported that Donald felt he was misled about this and angry. However the point stood and this was very supportive of the UK and pissed off Putin. There were no more ‘Skripols’ to my knowledge and the appalling mortality for any ex Russian citizen in the UK appears to join the general mortality curve (there were an extraordinary number of unexplained deaths prior to the Salisbury poisonings amongst this group).
Yes.
Windows were very dangerous for time, I believe?
Indeed, suicide and heart failures featured. Curiously security agencies downplayed it until post Salisbury.
Like the Israelis (many parallels) the Americans (I speak for what I see around me) believe the U.S. military can crush Russia if they had a mind too. If we REALLY wanted to boot Russia out of Ukraine we could. (I think we could have in the beginning). But we haven't. If the U.S. fielded its Army today it would be crushed, "drone meat" as you say. It has no answer to that, no experience. How do we know this?
o. The M-1s ended up trophies on Moscow Square. (the new ones are better, riiigghhht ;))
o. F-16s have so far not made a difference.
o. Where are the promises American best-tech drones on the battlefield? Nowhere. They're all Chinese, Turkish, etc.
o. The "Excalibur" what happened to that?
The dirty little secret is the U.S. has a military built to fight yesterday's war. Even if Ukraine was given F-35s so what? It's already firing plenty of cruise missiles. How would they change the Donbas? I can't see that they would.
The simple fact is it takes dead-bodies to take territory. Same as it always was. Americans have forgotten that. But in a way, Trump recognizes that simple fact. He recognizes that Ukrainians don't vote so he simply doesn't care. Americans would rather COMPLAIN about Trump than send their kids to fight a war in Europe. Can't blame them. Still...
The Dollar gets stronger and stronger but it's like a virus, it gets expensive enough and it kills its hosts. Okay, beginning to digress... :) We're in WWIII. Trump will just make it worse in a different way than Biden. Americans, ultimately, are not defenders of democracy. They're just selfish humans like everyone else. Worse, they feel entitled, righteous. Like the Israelis, they too will find themselves battling outside forces, the blowback a worsening of a civil war within.
Max you paint a gloomy picture. I don’t think the US would fight the war in the way Russia does. Russia does what it does because of long standing equipage and doctrine. It is not the US military way. Drone warfare at scale and in miniature is certainly something to contend with for the US but really once again would likely be rendered moot if the US civilian command would stop pissing in its boots and truly unleash the US military. In any case there will be no US troop involvement in Ukraine and I agree with you wholeheartedly that Trump will just mess it up in a different way than Biden. Your comment that the US looks out for itself is spot on and I submit that all nations do only this. When goals are shared cooperation occurs but in Ukraine Americans struggle to see shared interest. A better president could easily make the case but alas that seems unlikely.
I often point out that the biggest miscalculation of Hitler was the belief Germany had enough oil to meet its military objectives. Or, and this is the weird parallel, that "synthetic oil" would be able to meet its needs. What was synthetic oil but just a precursor to fracking!!! Anyway, synthetic oil didn't meet Germany's needs so its disastrous efforts to gain control of the Caucasus oil fields.
You, I, Stefan and other readers here can talk about this. 99% of Americans? We'd sound like complete nutjobs!
Yet this is what I see happening...again. The U.S. will start to realize it is running out of fracking oil and will turn to the Middle East again or the Caucasus. Getting it from the Ukrainians would be easier. If Ukraine loses, well, I don't think I need to explain to you ;)
Pay a little now, or pay in the millions of dead later.
The U.S. is not running out of oil in the near term.
https://www.eia.gov/naturalgas/crudeoilreserves/
Ukraine has a lot of coal. It has moderate natural gas reserves. It has a relatively small amount of oil reserves.
https://www.worldatlas.com/articles/what-are-the-major-natural-resources-of-ukraine.html
Yes, I didn't mean anything would happen near term. But I do believe we could face problems in 5-10 years. If reserves were so healthy why would we dip into the Strategic Petroleum Reserves? Seems a political salve (keep oil prices down) with long-term consequences. I don't know what to make of Ukraine's resources. Thanks for links!
Everybody builds armies to fight yesterdays war. I think definetly the US could beat Russia in a conventional war in Ukraine, but they would face a steep and coslt learning curve. And while I agree US is not so superior it believes itself to be (but nobody really are) your example of F16 is not very good. There are simply too few to really make a difference. And the air war now is more missiles than planes. But this is all armchair general discussion. We will not see any direct confrontation, that is dampede sure. So to some degree this doesnt really matter. Us will not committ. They will not support. Europe is of coursing taking that measure.
Hans, thanks for the compliment "Armchair General", I don't even rate the armchair ;)
You are welconme to the Club! Armchairs are nice, can only reccomend them! I honestly wish all generals did all their figthing in armchairs and theory!
I believe the U.S. has insufficient forces currently in Europe to oppose Russian aggression, however the American way of war fighting still works. Take control of the skies. Destroy the anti-air capability of the enemy. Bomb the shit out of the poor unlucky fellows on the ground. Send in the army to fight against a relatively helpless and demoralized enemy which is unable to move or supply itself.
My read is the Biden Administration would have looked at this from the start and the AF said, "We might knock out all of their SAMs or they might knock out all of our aircraft. We can't say for sure until we try and if we try no going back."
Will work here two, unless you get nukes involved. In this case Ukrainia could mop up.
Very good piece. Please join Bluesky (X is dying) and enlighten us in the time to come!
My thanks again Stefan, detailed and informative as always.
The information about the Ukrainian high command issues is particularly interesting, and concerning. Other analysts have made the same points; too much micro management from too high up.
A lack of a divisional command, this late on in such a massive war, that's a considerable oversight. It's not helping things. It needs fixed, and fast, as well as a concentrated attempt to apply 'Lessons learnt' on the battlefield. Else those lessons will be lost.
Crimea IS a done deal. Its Ukrainians & Tatars could never rule it’s Russian 70%
democratically, which NATO membership requires. Volodymyr is as delusionally
ambitious as Vladimir; and as doomed.
Jettison that for a Tatar North Crimea
buffer-state NATO membership along with a Ukraine of contiguous majority-Ukrainian regions only. Then await
Putinism’s doom.
Thanks for your analysis as always. I like your analysis and the Photo of the new US proconsul. I think he will have problems getting a deal here. One reason is of course Putins insatiability. He will not simply stop, reckognizing this as a great opportunity to demand more. Regarding Ukraine, I guess they will talk and try to stall. But yes, he will be a problem. Europe is committed, although there always will be some idiot in some country running along on some anti war/pro Russian strategy. (Next up? Romania.) This is managable as long as the big nations doesnt listen.