Maybe this kind of madness and treachery is normal wartime statecraft, we're just seeing this one close up and in real time. Thanks for keeping the faith
Thanks Stefan. I wouldn’t cheer so much on European states announcing this and that. But I guess something for the morale of Ukrainians is needed. Basically again you are alone with a network of small donors abroad.
The complexity of establishing the IAPZ; ROE, defining areas of responsibility, coordination and communication would not be a complete product on day one. With an effort of this magnitude, there would be a huge learning curve as the plan could be phased in, possibly starting on a smaller scale to get the coordination and communications worked out, functioning and familiar to the participants. The potential benefits would make the challenges well worth tackling.
Yes thank you indeed, really appreciate your posts. And your second ystdy detailing team trump’s [attempted] meddling in Ukraine politics was too funny.
Thanks Stefan, as an American baby boomer I hate seeing trump helping putin and the russian invasion. I am ashamed this administration but have hope and faith the good will triumph evil. Slava Ukraine.
Whether an immediate ceasefire benefits Ukraine more, or whether it would be better to "strengthen and arm" Ukraine for a while first, depends on objective, factual things. Mainly -- is the military situation stable? Or is it getting worse and worse? Is it getting worse fast enough to offset any benefit from any surge in aid?
AND -- is any effective surge in military aid even possible without the U.S.? In fact, can the Europeans even surge aid enough to make up for the loss of U.S. aid, much less increase it?
You need to have objective, non-wishful thinking answers to these questions before you can say whether Stubbs is onto something, or not.
The Russians don't seem to be in a hurry to stop the fighting. Maybe that should tell us something. Maybe prolonging the war will just put Ukraine in a worse, rather than better position.
For many reasons, for both Ukraine and Europe, the only acceptable outcome is the stopping of Russian aggression and securing Ukraine’s future. Success for Putin’s Russia achieving their goals (all their goals; complete control of the entire country of Ukraine attained over years if necessary) amounts to a disaster.
Ukraine will not stop fighting, whether things look grim or not, whether they get U.S. support or not, with whatever support they can get from Europe. The suggestion that Europe should base their assistance on trying to guess whether the “military situation is stable” or “getting worse” or not, has nothing to do with the need to provide all the support they can. Including providing whatever diplomatic technique they can to deflect the back-stabbing efforts of the trump regime.
I'm certainly in favor of providing military to support for Ukraine, as long as they ask for it. And we might all agree here that "the only acceptable outcome is the stopping of Russian aggression and securing Ukraine's future."
But what we consider acceptable, and what the Ukrainians consider acceptable, will not determine the outcome. Until there is a peace deal, the outcome will be determined by the reality on the battlefield, regardless of our desires, and regardless of what we consider acceptable or unacceptable.
Therefore, continuing the war may or may not produce a better outcome, than ending it now with an "unacceptable" settlement. If continued fighting results in the final defeat and destruction of Ukraine, then it certainly will not. If continued fighting does not result in final defeat, but results in more lost territory and more lost lives, then that is also will not produce a better outcome. The Russians have been advancing for 15 months straight. Does it really look like the Ukrainians are just about to turn it around? Such that there will be more, rather than less bargaining power, in 3 months, or 6 months from now? Really?
Wishful thinking is really dangerous in a situation like this. Really wanting something does not mean that it will happen. Considering something "unacceptable" does not mean it will not happen, and does not mean that something even more unacceptable will not happen 3 or 6 months from now.
Based on plenty of indications; the “peace deal” that could be expected to come from a process under the control of the Trump regime would lean heavily towards the terms Putin would declare as non-negotiable. These terms would be specifically designed to allow Russia to inflict a total victory over Ukraine when they are fully prepared to arrange it, either through another invasion or by completely subverting the electoral process to install a Orban, Fico or Georgia Dream government. The current United States negotiating team has no interest in considering these likely scenarios in its hurried push for a cease-fire and “peace at any price” effort. Ukraine is correct to absolutely refuse to accept those terms and hold this effort in contempt. Currently to keep fighting, regardless of anyone’s assessment of “the reality on the battlefield” or extrapolation thereof is in their best interest.
The Ukrainians of course have to keep fighting while a peace deal is being made. We should be helping them as much as possible, not cutting them off. But time is running hard against Ukraine, which should be in a hurry.
Putin will get more or less everything he wants, because having let this go on on this trajectory to this point, we've let him acquire a full hand of good cards. Trump's betrayal doesn't actually change things; just accelerates them.
The main thing he wants is a new security architecture for Europe, one where Russia is acknowledged as an equal partner, whose security concerns are taken seriously. Putin keeps talking about root causes of the war. Trump is actively giving him this. Will that do the trick, and facilitate Putin's making peace? We'll see.
We haven’t “let” him have a hand full of good cards. His “cards” are all part of the “optic” Trump is using to justify his hurried effort to force an unjust “peace” in his buddy Putin’s favor. Putin could have, and still might, lose - which would have happened if Trump had an ounce of integrity and fully supported Ukraine at a better than Biden half-hearted rate. But Trump IS Putin’s best card ! Trump’s betrayal changes everything that could have been.
Putin will only get “more or less everything he wants” if Trump is successful at making that happen. Ukraine is NOT going to roll over and give the Trump/Putin alliance what they want. Zelensky knows what’s at stake and is not going to be the patsy Trump wants.
No. Not even close on what Putin wants. To be acknowledged as an equal partner does NOT require invading a neighbor and logging thousands of war crimes. Putin wants an empire. He wants possession, or complete domination, of every country that was seized by Russia after WW2 and he’s willing to kill millions of people to get it. A “new security architecture” in Europe is one of HIS blatant excuses for initiating unprovoked hostilities where there was no threat and wasn’t going to be any threat.
Acknowledged as an equal partner? There are no other countries in Europe that would even consider invading a neighbor to make themselves bigger or more powerful. By doing so Putin eliminated any chance of ever being “an equal”, but forever being a horrendous threat to any peace or any stability.
Thank you for this Stefan. Sound reporting making sense of this chaos 👍
Thanks Stefan for a very good informative article, I keep hoping Europe steps up and shows trump how idiotic he is
Maybe this kind of madness and treachery is normal wartime statecraft, we're just seeing this one close up and in real time. Thanks for keeping the faith
Excellent analysis Stefan.
Thank you. 🗞️
Thanks Stefan. I wouldn’t cheer so much on European states announcing this and that. But I guess something for the morale of Ukrainians is needed. Basically again you are alone with a network of small donors abroad.
The complexity of establishing the IAPZ; ROE, defining areas of responsibility, coordination and communication would not be a complete product on day one. With an effort of this magnitude, there would be a huge learning curve as the plan could be phased in, possibly starting on a smaller scale to get the coordination and communications worked out, functioning and familiar to the participants. The potential benefits would make the challenges well worth tackling.
Yes thank you indeed, really appreciate your posts. And your second ystdy detailing team trump’s [attempted] meddling in Ukraine politics was too funny.
america has turned of the radar on the f16s, so now they are not great in defense
Thanks Stefan, as an American baby boomer I hate seeing trump helping putin and the russian invasion. I am ashamed this administration but have hope and faith the good will triumph evil. Slava Ukraine.
Whether an immediate ceasefire benefits Ukraine more, or whether it would be better to "strengthen and arm" Ukraine for a while first, depends on objective, factual things. Mainly -- is the military situation stable? Or is it getting worse and worse? Is it getting worse fast enough to offset any benefit from any surge in aid?
AND -- is any effective surge in military aid even possible without the U.S.? In fact, can the Europeans even surge aid enough to make up for the loss of U.S. aid, much less increase it?
You need to have objective, non-wishful thinking answers to these questions before you can say whether Stubbs is onto something, or not.
The Russians don't seem to be in a hurry to stop the fighting. Maybe that should tell us something. Maybe prolonging the war will just put Ukraine in a worse, rather than better position.
For many reasons, for both Ukraine and Europe, the only acceptable outcome is the stopping of Russian aggression and securing Ukraine’s future. Success for Putin’s Russia achieving their goals (all their goals; complete control of the entire country of Ukraine attained over years if necessary) amounts to a disaster.
Ukraine will not stop fighting, whether things look grim or not, whether they get U.S. support or not, with whatever support they can get from Europe. The suggestion that Europe should base their assistance on trying to guess whether the “military situation is stable” or “getting worse” or not, has nothing to do with the need to provide all the support they can. Including providing whatever diplomatic technique they can to deflect the back-stabbing efforts of the trump regime.
I'm certainly in favor of providing military to support for Ukraine, as long as they ask for it. And we might all agree here that "the only acceptable outcome is the stopping of Russian aggression and securing Ukraine's future."
But what we consider acceptable, and what the Ukrainians consider acceptable, will not determine the outcome. Until there is a peace deal, the outcome will be determined by the reality on the battlefield, regardless of our desires, and regardless of what we consider acceptable or unacceptable.
Therefore, continuing the war may or may not produce a better outcome, than ending it now with an "unacceptable" settlement. If continued fighting results in the final defeat and destruction of Ukraine, then it certainly will not. If continued fighting does not result in final defeat, but results in more lost territory and more lost lives, then that is also will not produce a better outcome. The Russians have been advancing for 15 months straight. Does it really look like the Ukrainians are just about to turn it around? Such that there will be more, rather than less bargaining power, in 3 months, or 6 months from now? Really?
Wishful thinking is really dangerous in a situation like this. Really wanting something does not mean that it will happen. Considering something "unacceptable" does not mean it will not happen, and does not mean that something even more unacceptable will not happen 3 or 6 months from now.
We aren’t disagreeing by too much…
Based on plenty of indications; the “peace deal” that could be expected to come from a process under the control of the Trump regime would lean heavily towards the terms Putin would declare as non-negotiable. These terms would be specifically designed to allow Russia to inflict a total victory over Ukraine when they are fully prepared to arrange it, either through another invasion or by completely subverting the electoral process to install a Orban, Fico or Georgia Dream government. The current United States negotiating team has no interest in considering these likely scenarios in its hurried push for a cease-fire and “peace at any price” effort. Ukraine is correct to absolutely refuse to accept those terms and hold this effort in contempt. Currently to keep fighting, regardless of anyone’s assessment of “the reality on the battlefield” or extrapolation thereof is in their best interest.
The Ukrainians of course have to keep fighting while a peace deal is being made. We should be helping them as much as possible, not cutting them off. But time is running hard against Ukraine, which should be in a hurry.
Putin will get more or less everything he wants, because having let this go on on this trajectory to this point, we've let him acquire a full hand of good cards. Trump's betrayal doesn't actually change things; just accelerates them.
The main thing he wants is a new security architecture for Europe, one where Russia is acknowledged as an equal partner, whose security concerns are taken seriously. Putin keeps talking about root causes of the war. Trump is actively giving him this. Will that do the trick, and facilitate Putin's making peace? We'll see.
We haven’t “let” him have a hand full of good cards. His “cards” are all part of the “optic” Trump is using to justify his hurried effort to force an unjust “peace” in his buddy Putin’s favor. Putin could have, and still might, lose - which would have happened if Trump had an ounce of integrity and fully supported Ukraine at a better than Biden half-hearted rate. But Trump IS Putin’s best card ! Trump’s betrayal changes everything that could have been.
Putin will only get “more or less everything he wants” if Trump is successful at making that happen. Ukraine is NOT going to roll over and give the Trump/Putin alliance what they want. Zelensky knows what’s at stake and is not going to be the patsy Trump wants.
No. Not even close on what Putin wants. To be acknowledged as an equal partner does NOT require invading a neighbor and logging thousands of war crimes. Putin wants an empire. He wants possession, or complete domination, of every country that was seized by Russia after WW2 and he’s willing to kill millions of people to get it. A “new security architecture” in Europe is one of HIS blatant excuses for initiating unprovoked hostilities where there was no threat and wasn’t going to be any threat.
Acknowledged as an equal partner? There are no other countries in Europe that would even consider invading a neighbor to make themselves bigger or more powerful. By doing so Putin eliminated any chance of ever being “an equal”, but forever being a horrendous threat to any peace or any stability.