I'm impressed that you managed to describe the appearances of Trump and Kellogg without employing the words "idiot," "moron," or "imbecile." This is a level of restraint, which, thankfully, Ukraine is NOT demonstrating in its drone barrages. Slava Ukraini!
Thank you for a very interesting and illuminating read. I think the most important and precise analysis of US policies these days is your last sentence: «They sure are full of themselves». This also goes for «their» domestic politics, one has to wonder how on earth they will manage to send out 11 million illegal immigrants. But while they are certainly gonna be disappointed in a lot of things the next six months the process will hurt. Nothing to do about ut, they are in the offices with the bald eagle so be it.
Regarding the other main topic of your piece, thank you very much for that analysis. What I really cannot understand is why this isn’t reported more in the various mainstream media. At least European. We are so transfixed by the spectacle across the ocean that we ignore what is happening closer to us. And it seems like all local military analysts are obsessed with the ground war and totally ignoring the air war. Even if the glide bombing was/is instrumental to the Russian advance on the ground. Really sad.
A question here though. Does anybody have a map with the various hits of Ukraine marked? Say a summary of hits in January? To show both the geographical spread of the attacks and the density? You summary was excellent but a map would be wonderful.
Thank you, Stefan. It's just passing strange that Ukraine's success with sophisticated Terminator drone setups, plus their ability to strike deep into Russia almost at will is ignored by so many Realist-school experts. It seems they'll just keep doubling down until they're out...
Your oil economics isn’t convincing. Trump’s plan is to reduce constraints on US oil supply (“drill baby drill”). Higher supply will lower the price. Lower prices will pressure the Saudis to lower theirs. Lastly US voters like, not dislike, lower gas prices! Everyone knows that.
Yeah, but you can't just turn the spigot on with US oil supply. The number of rigs still continues to drop. Haliburton, one of the biggest oil equipment companies, just laid off 6k people. They wouldn't do that if they saw a massive increase coming. Also, prices can't really go much lower before the companies have to stop, as he said in the piece.
Of course US voters like lower gasoline prices. Not necessarily lower oil prices. Not exactly the same. Lower oil prices isn’t good for the oil companies, including their workers. Anyhow, a process where new oil sources (drilled and delivered takes time man) and market mechanisms forces the price down is something radically different from a situation where oil prices are artificially reduced to serve as a tool for US foreign policy. This artificial price will not be realized.
The constraints on US oil production are mainly economic. The cheap oil in the US was pumped out a long time ago. Current oil is harder to get and hence more expensive. Trump can’t wave a magic wand and change that.
Thank you Stefan for this very good and informative article and I believe you are right on about trump kellogg they have no real idea as to the real world in the Russo Ukraine war
Kellog probably thinks that he has to talk a good game, no matter how unrealistic, to keep the Orange Great One happy. He’s aiming at an audience of one while he scratches his head and tries to figure out what on earth they’re going to do.
I'm impressed that you managed to describe the appearances of Trump and Kellogg without employing the words "idiot," "moron," or "imbecile." This is a level of restraint, which, thankfully, Ukraine is NOT demonstrating in its drone barrages. Slava Ukraini!
Well, there was that “. . . More On. . . .” reference! 😂
Noticed that and approved...
You are heroes. One day I’ll switch the radio on, you will have won and Putin will be dead. Hope it’s soon.
Thank you for a very interesting and illuminating read. I think the most important and precise analysis of US policies these days is your last sentence: «They sure are full of themselves». This also goes for «their» domestic politics, one has to wonder how on earth they will manage to send out 11 million illegal immigrants. But while they are certainly gonna be disappointed in a lot of things the next six months the process will hurt. Nothing to do about ut, they are in the offices with the bald eagle so be it.
Regarding the other main topic of your piece, thank you very much for that analysis. What I really cannot understand is why this isn’t reported more in the various mainstream media. At least European. We are so transfixed by the spectacle across the ocean that we ignore what is happening closer to us. And it seems like all local military analysts are obsessed with the ground war and totally ignoring the air war. Even if the glide bombing was/is instrumental to the Russian advance on the ground. Really sad.
A question here though. Does anybody have a map with the various hits of Ukraine marked? Say a summary of hits in January? To show both the geographical spread of the attacks and the density? You summary was excellent but a map would be wonderful.
And here there is a nice monthly timelapse strike map for 2024:
https://acleddata.com/conflict-watchlist-2025/ukraine/
Fascinating. Still too little known in «the West», but I see the information is out there and can be distributed.
I've found a map of the last week strike locations here:
https://www.newsweek.com/russia-map-shows-critical-infrastructure-blasted-ukraine-this-week-2016757
Thank you. It really showed how large an area has been attacked. The range of Ukraine now is impressive to say it least.
Trump and putin are remarkably similar. They both lie about what they are going to do then they lie that they've done it and their supporters cheer.
Thanks, Stefan. I eagerly read every one of your posts. This one was especially worthwhile. The dissonance grows ...
A great read, as always. Thanks Stefan
Thank you, Stefan. It's just passing strange that Ukraine's success with sophisticated Terminator drone setups, plus their ability to strike deep into Russia almost at will is ignored by so many Realist-school experts. It seems they'll just keep doubling down until they're out...
thanks for the update!
VeteranHub, a charity that is engaged in veteran policies research suspended one of the offices cause of the cut-off funds
Here is the official statement https://www.instagram.com/p/DFSHIS8ITvi/
IDK if that was the administration's intention.
Thank you Stefan, excellent article as always 👍
A delicious and outstanding read. I shared it on bluesky https://bsky.app/profile/pixeline.be/post/3lgmxwuzn422k
Your oil economics isn’t convincing. Trump’s plan is to reduce constraints on US oil supply (“drill baby drill”). Higher supply will lower the price. Lower prices will pressure the Saudis to lower theirs. Lastly US voters like, not dislike, lower gas prices! Everyone knows that.
Yeah, but you can't just turn the spigot on with US oil supply. The number of rigs still continues to drop. Haliburton, one of the biggest oil equipment companies, just laid off 6k people. They wouldn't do that if they saw a massive increase coming. Also, prices can't really go much lower before the companies have to stop, as he said in the piece.
Prices have been lower before – negative, even. They were below 50 in 2016.
Fair point. Let’s revisit in 3 months and we can see what happens!
Of course US voters like lower gasoline prices. Not necessarily lower oil prices. Not exactly the same. Lower oil prices isn’t good for the oil companies, including their workers. Anyhow, a process where new oil sources (drilled and delivered takes time man) and market mechanisms forces the price down is something radically different from a situation where oil prices are artificially reduced to serve as a tool for US foreign policy. This artificial price will not be realized.
The constraints on US oil production are mainly economic. The cheap oil in the US was pumped out a long time ago. Current oil is harder to get and hence more expensive. Trump can’t wave a magic wand and change that.
Maybe, just maybe, if the oil price drops Saudi Arabia will reduce the amount of oil that they pump in order to keep prices up.
Thank you Stefan for this very good and informative article and I believe you are right on about trump kellogg they have no real idea as to the real world in the Russo Ukraine war
Kellog probably thinks that he has to talk a good game, no matter how unrealistic, to keep the Orange Great One happy. He’s aiming at an audience of one while he scratches his head and tries to figure out what on earth they’re going to do.