Thank you for the information, and let me wish you a happy new year! Always good to read your analysis. Among a lot of interesting stuff the long range drone part stood out. I totally agree, this should be reported much more and probably a little more systematically. But it is good to read. And Trump will discover that to dictate the war from USA is really difficult. I think this has already been discovered by his chosen toadies, but we shall see.
I would suggest you reach out to Kellogg. He has a strong incentive to get accurate information. Hopefully he can/could get such information to Trump.
If Kellogg would talk to you, Chuck Pfarrer, and Jason Smart, he might have a decent idea of reality on the ground. He (Kellogg) is a professional, and should appreciate the importance of getting real information.
It's difficult not to feel depressed over the continual advancement of muscovite forces, but after reading your expert opinion, Stefan, I can go to bed feeling much better! Slava Ukrayini!
Thank you Stefan. The final US package of aid for Ukraine has been announced, no more US aid can be provided under the law. So Trump does not have to do anything to end support for Ukraine - just refrain from asking the Congress for a new package.
So, US aid to Ukraine is over, finished. I don't see this point made clear in the media. Am I missing something ?
I think that must have been two grenade launchers on the last linked drone video. The operator fired, then there was a significant delay, they circled round to check that the munition had exploded on target.
Not sure we're your getting your information about Republicans and Americans. The majority of Republicans and us Americans support the Ukraine and agree with the aid that we provide. Maybe in the future you should contact us in the US before writing the above. It's more sounding like the news that's made up in the US.
lol! If the US pulls out, Europe isn’t going to sustain Ukraine. They can’t. They’re short on material and they’re short on money.
And Trump will pull out. He has already started to repeat Russian concerns about NATO, which is a good sign. The war in Ukraine isn’t an American core interest, Asia is. And the US can’t and won’t fund both.
TLDR: Europe either better cut its social programs and start rearming, which isn’t likely and would result in a rebellion in the polls, or they need to use the only tool in the toolbox they haven’t used yet: Diplomacy. Establish a new security structure in Europe that meets Russian and European needs.
As for Ukraine, they’re pretty much fucked. But they’ve been fucked ever since the 23 counteroffensive failed. Russia will take what they want, and the rest of Ukraine better tighten the belts to repay all those war debts.
Ultimately, you elect a comedian, don’t be surprised if the result is tragicomic.
Assault units that are wiped out gaining ground are a plus
Another advantage is that no one comes back to warn other troops. Let’s say half the unit was wiped out and the other half returned to the line and told everyone what happened. After this happened 2 or 3 times morale would plummet and a lot of people would stop agreeing to go on these assaults. That could be the end of the Russian advance. OTOH maybe not. In WW I soldiers continued to go on suicidal charges into machine gun fire.
Great roundup. More importantly, it's just sensible analysis based on hard data. And you're right, Americans have gotten so used to thinking what they say goes that they don't realise other NATO members have the capacity to make their own decision and do so all the time. Trump threatening two NATO allies has not gone down well.
Btw, the Luxembourg AWACS are the ones owned and operated by NATO. They had to be registered somewhere and Luxembourg was the choice. Luxembourg does have its own airforce: an Airbus 400M part-owned with the Belgium and also a few helicopters. I vaguely recall hearing they're buying another transport plane too.
And the list of military aid from German is actually incomplete. :) They've just announced six IRIS/Ts by the end of this year. It's more than 50 Gepards donated in total already with more due to arrive this year. And extra Cheetahs too. The first state-of-the-art Lynx IFVs have just arrived. More than 200 are being built. The first RCH-155 automated self-propelled howitzer was delivered this week. Fifty-four are due to arrive in total. And there's lots more. I'm amazed I'm saying this, but Germany is standing tall.
Of the 1000+ main battle tanks donated to Ukraine so far (more arrived this week from Croatia) only 31 have come from the States (M1A1s). Of the 125+ combat aircraft donated, the USA has not contributed a single one. That's not to say America has not been very generous, especially with munitions, but the contributions of other nations has been under-reported.
Important to note that much of the material that has been “promised” hasn’t actually been delivered.
And the Ukrainian withdrawals all along the front doesn’t exactly hasten the deliveries. After all, why deliver them and lose them, if the war is already going that badly.
Conversely, you don’t need to be a strategic genius to look at something like “1000 tanks delivered” and go: “Hmm… If a thousand tanks won’t help, what good will a few hundred more do?”
The facts are that Europe can’t replace America. (And even if they could, the political will isn’t there. Few people in Europe care about Ukraine now.)
The depots are empty, the wallets are empty and they don’t have any of the satellites/communication capabilities the US has.
That's because what hasn't been delivered has not been built or modernised yet. There is no magic wand you can wave and, lo, high end air defence systems miraculously appear from thin air. It takes years to manufacture them. The same is true of every sophisticated weapons system.
You might promise something then not deliver or refuse to because you think your ally is not doing a good job. Are you Donald Trump in disguise? Luckily, Ukraine has allies who do honor their promises. You simply wishing that's not true means nothing.
Oh, and Ukraine now has more and better tanks, artillery, IFVs etc than when the war started up again in 2022. Apart from all the bilateral aid promised to Ukraine, it has just received the first 2 billion euros of the 50 billion it will receive from frozen Russian assets. Wallets are not empty. You are quite correct. You are not a strategic genius.
It's nice to read and all, but I really don't see how we are "winning", when russians have way more stored rockets (like, its in hundreds, no?) and we still have no real solutions for glider bombs. Maybe we can sand better drones, more drones, but saying that there is some parity in air war seems sorta bullshity to me.
Ukraine built over 6000 long-range drones last year, and IIRC, plans to increase that production by an order of magnitude this year. In the last two nights, Ukraine has launched co-ordinated drone-cruise missile-ballistic missile attacks on large numbers of targets, some a 1000km deep inside Russia. Fuel depots, weapons plants, arms dumps, and an explosive factory were hit. Hundreds of drones and missile each night. Only a handful of the missiles were ATACMS and (unconfirmed but probable) Storm Shadows. The rest were built in Ukraine.
All that is very impressive. And more successful (plenty of online video of the targets burning) than anything Russia has achieved this year.
Military success is not measured by the abundance of online videos unfortunately. I didn't say that Ukraine can't do anything, it obviously doing something – but "winning" is a strong word and should not be used on a whim. Winning in which war exactly? As I said in the comment, russians are still pounding frontlines with gliders – sure, nobody is eager to spread those videos, not flashy enough I guess, but I would gather that this activity has more impact on the war than some oil depot burning for a couple of days. Maybe I'm wrong. Would be glad to be wrong.
You do realise that you are the only person who has used the word 'winning' in this thread? Why not go and read about wars of attrition? They're not glamorous but it what Ukraine is fighting right now. No one wins those wars until an opponent breaks. It takes time. Oh, and you dismiss the long range attacks on Russian logistics but there is a reason why artillery fires have dropped off. As have glide bombs. And it's not because of your hoping you might be wrong.
Not trying to be cute but you posted a reply to my comment so you can see why the misunderstanding happened. And, yes, I agree. No one is winning this war right now.
You've certainly made my day! Your reporting is terrific and totally screws American mass media with tons of facts. Well done, dude!
Another superb update, Stefan. Thank you and happy new year.
Thank you for the information, and let me wish you a happy new year! Always good to read your analysis. Among a lot of interesting stuff the long range drone part stood out. I totally agree, this should be reported much more and probably a little more systematically. But it is good to read. And Trump will discover that to dictate the war from USA is really difficult. I think this has already been discovered by his chosen toadies, but we shall see.
Stephan,
I would suggest you reach out to Kellogg. He has a strong incentive to get accurate information. Hopefully he can/could get such information to Trump.
If Kellogg would talk to you, Chuck Pfarrer, and Jason Smart, he might have a decent idea of reality on the ground. He (Kellogg) is a professional, and should appreciate the importance of getting real information.
It's difficult not to feel depressed over the continual advancement of muscovite forces, but after reading your expert opinion, Stefan, I can go to bed feeling much better! Slava Ukrayini!
Thank you Stefan. The final US package of aid for Ukraine has been announced, no more US aid can be provided under the law. So Trump does not have to do anything to end support for Ukraine - just refrain from asking the Congress for a new package.
So, US aid to Ukraine is over, finished. I don't see this point made clear in the media. Am I missing something ?
Congress can pass an aid bill. And there is (or maybe was) strong bi-partisan support for Ukraine. Trump would then have to veto it.
Great report. The news was better than could be expected, which is encouraging. Thank you.
I think that must have been two grenade launchers on the last linked drone video. The operator fired, then there was a significant delay, they circled round to check that the munition had exploded on target.
I'm liking these articles Stefan thanks so much
Not sure we're your getting your information about Republicans and Americans. The majority of Republicans and us Americans support the Ukraine and agree with the aid that we provide. Maybe in the future you should contact us in the US before writing the above. It's more sounding like the news that's made up in the US.
lol! If the US pulls out, Europe isn’t going to sustain Ukraine. They can’t. They’re short on material and they’re short on money.
And Trump will pull out. He has already started to repeat Russian concerns about NATO, which is a good sign. The war in Ukraine isn’t an American core interest, Asia is. And the US can’t and won’t fund both.
TLDR: Europe either better cut its social programs and start rearming, which isn’t likely and would result in a rebellion in the polls, or they need to use the only tool in the toolbox they haven’t used yet: Diplomacy. Establish a new security structure in Europe that meets Russian and European needs.
As for Ukraine, they’re pretty much fucked. But they’ve been fucked ever since the 23 counteroffensive failed. Russia will take what they want, and the rest of Ukraine better tighten the belts to repay all those war debts.
Ultimately, you elect a comedian, don’t be surprised if the result is tragicomic.
Assault units that are wiped out gaining ground are a plus
Another advantage is that no one comes back to warn other troops. Let’s say half the unit was wiped out and the other half returned to the line and told everyone what happened. After this happened 2 or 3 times morale would plummet and a lot of people would stop agreeing to go on these assaults. That could be the end of the Russian advance. OTOH maybe not. In WW I soldiers continued to go on suicidal charges into machine gun fire.
Great roundup. More importantly, it's just sensible analysis based on hard data. And you're right, Americans have gotten so used to thinking what they say goes that they don't realise other NATO members have the capacity to make their own decision and do so all the time. Trump threatening two NATO allies has not gone down well.
Btw, the Luxembourg AWACS are the ones owned and operated by NATO. They had to be registered somewhere and Luxembourg was the choice. Luxembourg does have its own airforce: an Airbus 400M part-owned with the Belgium and also a few helicopters. I vaguely recall hearing they're buying another transport plane too.
And the list of military aid from German is actually incomplete. :) They've just announced six IRIS/Ts by the end of this year. It's more than 50 Gepards donated in total already with more due to arrive this year. And extra Cheetahs too. The first state-of-the-art Lynx IFVs have just arrived. More than 200 are being built. The first RCH-155 automated self-propelled howitzer was delivered this week. Fifty-four are due to arrive in total. And there's lots more. I'm amazed I'm saying this, but Germany is standing tall.
Of the 1000+ main battle tanks donated to Ukraine so far (more arrived this week from Croatia) only 31 have come from the States (M1A1s). Of the 125+ combat aircraft donated, the USA has not contributed a single one. That's not to say America has not been very generous, especially with munitions, but the contributions of other nations has been under-reported.
Important to note that much of the material that has been “promised” hasn’t actually been delivered.
And the Ukrainian withdrawals all along the front doesn’t exactly hasten the deliveries. After all, why deliver them and lose them, if the war is already going that badly.
Conversely, you don’t need to be a strategic genius to look at something like “1000 tanks delivered” and go: “Hmm… If a thousand tanks won’t help, what good will a few hundred more do?”
The facts are that Europe can’t replace America. (And even if they could, the political will isn’t there. Few people in Europe care about Ukraine now.)
The depots are empty, the wallets are empty and they don’t have any of the satellites/communication capabilities the US has.
That's because what hasn't been delivered has not been built or modernised yet. There is no magic wand you can wave and, lo, high end air defence systems miraculously appear from thin air. It takes years to manufacture them. The same is true of every sophisticated weapons system.
You might promise something then not deliver or refuse to because you think your ally is not doing a good job. Are you Donald Trump in disguise? Luckily, Ukraine has allies who do honor their promises. You simply wishing that's not true means nothing.
Oh, and Ukraine now has more and better tanks, artillery, IFVs etc than when the war started up again in 2022. Apart from all the bilateral aid promised to Ukraine, it has just received the first 2 billion euros of the 50 billion it will receive from frozen Russian assets. Wallets are not empty. You are quite correct. You are not a strategic genius.
It's nice to read and all, but I really don't see how we are "winning", when russians have way more stored rockets (like, its in hundreds, no?) and we still have no real solutions for glider bombs. Maybe we can sand better drones, more drones, but saying that there is some parity in air war seems sorta bullshity to me.
Ukraine built over 6000 long-range drones last year, and IIRC, plans to increase that production by an order of magnitude this year. In the last two nights, Ukraine has launched co-ordinated drone-cruise missile-ballistic missile attacks on large numbers of targets, some a 1000km deep inside Russia. Fuel depots, weapons plants, arms dumps, and an explosive factory were hit. Hundreds of drones and missile each night. Only a handful of the missiles were ATACMS and (unconfirmed but probable) Storm Shadows. The rest were built in Ukraine.
All that is very impressive. And more successful (plenty of online video of the targets burning) than anything Russia has achieved this year.
Military success is not measured by the abundance of online videos unfortunately. I didn't say that Ukraine can't do anything, it obviously doing something – but "winning" is a strong word and should not be used on a whim. Winning in which war exactly? As I said in the comment, russians are still pounding frontlines with gliders – sure, nobody is eager to spread those videos, not flashy enough I guess, but I would gather that this activity has more impact on the war than some oil depot burning for a couple of days. Maybe I'm wrong. Would be glad to be wrong.
You do realise that you are the only person who has used the word 'winning' in this thread? Why not go and read about wars of attrition? They're not glamorous but it what Ukraine is fighting right now. No one wins those wars until an opponent breaks. It takes time. Oh, and you dismiss the long range attacks on Russian logistics but there is a reason why artillery fires have dropped off. As have glide bombs. And it's not because of your hoping you might be wrong.
Dude, nice try being cute, but word "winning" was used by Stefan in the post I wrote comment to.
Not trying to be cute but you posted a reply to my comment so you can see why the misunderstanding happened. And, yes, I agree. No one is winning this war right now.
Another superb report. We can only hope that your balanced reporting is followed by all governments in the West!
I can't wait till Ukrainian booms on orcs hit Infinity!