February 8 — Day 1081b — continued

And Three Smaller Items

The Ukrainians Shot Down a Russian Glide Bomb? — On Friday there was a wave of reports that the Ukrainians after some testing had figured out a way to shoot down a Russian glider bomb, which as we all know is an important piece of Russian tactical firepower, because the Russian aircraft can drop the bombs from outside the range of Ukrainian air defenses. This has allowed the Russians to level and capture Ukrainian strong-point towns and cities like Avdiievka and more recently Kurahove and Toretsk.

Judging by unconfirmed reports from Ukrainian mil-bloggers, it appears what happened was that the Ukrainians managed to get a reliable prediction of where the glider bomb was going to be aimed a reasonable time before it was dropped, and then a truck with a ZSU-23 auto cannon — these thing put out a ridiculous amount of shells but their range at 2.5 km. is pretty short, managed to get close enough to the path of the glide bomb to blow it up before it impacted.

My guess based on back of envelope math is that a Russian glide bomb probably travels at about 600–700 kph, or, 160–200 meters a second. This means a ZSU crew locked and loaded and looking for something to kill would have about 5–8 seconds to take the shot before the glide bomb hit the ground.

Not easy for gunnery adjusted by the Mark 1 eyeball, but apparently not impossible. The more time they have to engage the bomb, the closer they would be to be to the impact point. So I’m not sure this is the same as Ukraine having found a practical solution to Russian glide bombs. Image of a ZSU cannon aboard an Ural truck.

A “technical” Ukrainian style: a 1970s-vintage ZSU 23mm autocannon aboard a 1960s-vintage Ural truck, one of the most all-terrain capable wheeled vehicles every built.

It’s Been a Big Week for Ukrainian Combat Jets — This week the first three Mirage 2000–5F jets were confirmed received by Ukraine. Obviously an image. Also, the first Netherlands-donated F-16 jets arrived in country as well. Officials aren’t saying exactly how many more might come but my guess would be the UAF should have 6–9 Mirages and 6–12 more F-16s available by the end of March. Also, Syrsky said talks with the Swedes about possible delivery of Grypen jets are advancing. I’m not sure how much influence this will have on the fighting in the medium term, but, at this pace in about a year Ukraine could have a credible air force reasonably able to fight hard for control of Ukrainian air space.

Cool French Air Force pub photo of a Mirage-2000F. The ones the Ukrainians got are confirmed with the big fuel tanks.

Current and Shocking News from the Baltic You Will Get a Charge From — As of Saturday, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia disconnected themselves from the Russian power grid.

Ukraine Isn’t Waiting for War Crimes Prosecutions

Ukraine’s military agency HUR announced a Russian artillery Captain named Konstantin Nagayko (image) died in an explosion in the town Shuya, Ivanovo region in a successful assassination. He had been battery commander of the 112th missile brigade of the 1st tank army of the Western Military District of the Russian Federation which, on Oct. 23 2023, launched a strike on the Ukrainian village Groza and killed 59 Ukrainian civilians attending a memorial dinner.

I am editorializing, but, anyone who thinks that a ceasefire will stop Ukrainian targeted assassinations inside Russia is a fool. Short an iron-clad security agreement and peace deal, or a downfall of the Putin regime, the Ukrainians are going be — heck, they already are — very much like the Israelis going after concentration camp staff. The Ukrainian state will hunt down and kill people they consider responsible for murdering Ukrainians, to the ends of of the Earth and to the ends of those Russians’ lives. I know inside the Beltway a Ukrainian desideratum for justice isn’t considered a serious issue. Just wait.

This is Konstantin Nagayko, with his mother, in a family photo. He commanded a missile battery in Russia’s 1st Tank Army. Ukrainian authorities think he gave the command to launch a missile strike on a Ukrainian village in Oct. 23, that killed 59 civilians. He died in an explosion in Russia’s Ivanovo region, on Moscow’s outskirts. Ukraine’s special operations command took responsibility