Hi All! Two years. Two friggin’ years. OK, first and foremost, now that we’ve hit 24 months of war, this post must start with a huge “thank you” to you guys, the readers. If I’m honest it’s not always fun and games and and upbeat conversations and pleasant people to hang out with, in an actual conventional war.
Thanks more than you probably realise for the first upbeat positive assessment of the immediate future for Ukraine at a time of general gloom about her prospects against the evil empire. Re Germany being a conglomerate of companies masquerading as a nation state, recall that up to the military collapse in 1918, Germany was an army posing as a nation state. Russia now? As if the mafia were running Italy? No, not possible. Keep up the reporting. We far away appreciate it.
Thank you. But talking about air superiority is still quite premature in my view. The first thing to watch is whether the actual number of sorties comes down (and not only because of battlefield changes, ie the fall of Avdiivka). And I’m a bit more pessimistic about European help. EU had more than a year to prepare and yet it is still at the starting point
Maybe not at the starting point, but it is becoming clear how far behind was Europe militarily, compared with the USA, Russia and I think China as well. And as always, the UK is best positioned in Europe from this point of view. Kudos to them.
Kudos for what? I mean their military aid - Challengers, NLAWs, Shadows, the very first actions by BoJo, pulling other allies to increase/start aid - that was superb. But did UK increase production of its tanks, missiles, etc? Did it sustain the initial pace …
I am not talking about the help for Ukraine. I am just saying that compared to the rest of Europe, the UK is more advanced militarily, and more prepared for action. They were not so asleep. It's only my opinion. I also think that with the current resources, Europe can not manage a major war without the USA, unfortunately. What it is done right now to improve, it is another story. I still hope that they are all more intelligent than they look like...
Stefan’s post today looks so valuable I thought to ask the tech savvy amongst you to share it with a great website on US withdrawal from the world, Zeihan on Geopolitics. I’ll email Stefan to ask him to interview Zeihan for the Kyiv Post.
Thanks more than you probably realise for the first upbeat positive assessment of the immediate future for Ukraine at a time of general gloom about her prospects against the evil empire. Re Germany being a conglomerate of companies masquerading as a nation state, recall that up to the military collapse in 1918, Germany was an army posing as a nation state. Russia now? As if the mafia were running Italy? No, not possible. Keep up the reporting. We far away appreciate it.
Thank you. But talking about air superiority is still quite premature in my view. The first thing to watch is whether the actual number of sorties comes down (and not only because of battlefield changes, ie the fall of Avdiivka). And I’m a bit more pessimistic about European help. EU had more than a year to prepare and yet it is still at the starting point
Maybe not at the starting point, but it is becoming clear how far behind was Europe militarily, compared with the USA, Russia and I think China as well. And as always, the UK is best positioned in Europe from this point of view. Kudos to them.
Kudos for what? I mean their military aid - Challengers, NLAWs, Shadows, the very first actions by BoJo, pulling other allies to increase/start aid - that was superb. But did UK increase production of its tanks, missiles, etc? Did it sustain the initial pace …
I am not talking about the help for Ukraine. I am just saying that compared to the rest of Europe, the UK is more advanced militarily, and more prepared for action. They were not so asleep. It's only my opinion. I also think that with the current resources, Europe can not manage a major war without the USA, unfortunately. What it is done right now to improve, it is another story. I still hope that they are all more intelligent than they look like...
Thanks so much! Keep it up! I eagerly read every post.
Paul
Talk about a tutorial! Dayum! You’re GREAT my buddy! Wow! Another tour de force dude. I so appreciate your honesty and your voice🤗🫂🥰
If you haven't read anything by Stefan,where have you been?
The war in Ukraine takes on new phase as we enter the 'Air War' having witnessed the Russians losing the Black Sea.
Stefan’s post today looks so valuable I thought to ask the tech savvy amongst you to share it with a great website on US withdrawal from the world, Zeihan on Geopolitics. I’ll email Stefan to ask him to interview Zeihan for the Kyiv Post.
Fantastic report. I look forward to reading every one of them for how ever many years it takes.
Brilliant thanks, insightful as always and even with added hope. Have a great day
Excellent writeup, that gives me where to look at for points of hope. Thank you Stefan!