What I believe is occurring, is that the European heads of state, including Ukraine, were willing to give the Pillsbury-Doughboy Ego a chance to see what he could actually do with his over-hyped “Peace Negotiations” to end the war. There was a time when there may have been some hope that he wanted to really be the strong man on the stage and arm twist the Russians into something acceptable.
It will have to be done a bit diplomatically, though, because we (those of us who are pro-Ukraine) don’t want to hurt the delicate feelings of the Americans (of which I’m one) in order to try to keep a few things like Patriot missiles, 155mm ammo and necessary F-16 spare parts flowing.
Written with a lot of clarity. Fortunately, European capitals already have experience of Trump's first four years. It's unlikely anyone has any illusions about how he operates. That said, the Starmer government in the UK is keeping quiet. Maybe they think they can repeat Blair's failed attempt to influence GWB before the Iraq invasion.
Btw, it may please you to know that Germany is already producing more 155mm ammunition than the US. And it's being shipped to Ukraine. Rheinmetall alone has new munitions plants coming on line across the continent and elsewhere this year, as do manufacturers in many other European nations. Trump can starve Ukraine of Patriots, but Ukraine won't run out of shells. And threatening Europe will just undercut the US arms industry as it would look to itself and elsewhere for armaments. Just look at Poland's decision to buy heavy weapons from South Korea. It is still buying arms from the US, but, after Trump's first administration, they decided not to become too reliant on the USA.
I did not know of that statistic on Rheinmetall 155mm production, but you are right, that’s a wonderful fact. I was aware of Rheinmetall being an enthusiastic participant in joining Ukraine, on their soil, for arms production collaboration. Bring it on. I was stationed in Germany for six years and always appreciated their work ethic and their sense of being European as much as being German.
I’m still waiting for the media to stop saying Europe can’t provide enough for Ukraine’s defense without the U.S., and get to “they can and will”.
It's quickly getting to the point where Ukraine 'can and will' itself. Over the next two years, it'll be receiving $70bn from the interest that's accrued on frozen Russian assets. Apparently ring-fenced for weapons and munitions, the first transfer of 3bn Euros arrived last month. There are moves afoot to give them those frozen assets in their entirety as reparations. I'm no expert, but it's probably safe to assume that process will take years. Meanwhile, the interest will keep piling up and keep on being transferred to Ukraine. It means Ukraine can now shift from receiving second or third-hand donations of obsolete weapons to buying equipment far superior to anything Russia can manufacture. The first Patria, Lynx, and Boxer AFVs have arrived. Plus large numbers of CV90s (probably the world's best AFV) are on order too. That's in addition to the sizeable amount already donated by Denmark and Sweden. These are all orders placed two years ago and It's only small amounts so far. As the production lines expand and speed up this year they'll arrive in far greater numbers. Ukraine is already producing more of their own next-gen howitzer―the Bohdana―than are being donated. And Ukraine is buying a lot of the French-made CAESARs too. All this has been reported widely in the defense press but it never seems to get picked up by the mainstream media in the US (or here in the UK too). I guess it runs counter to the lazy 'Russia-advancing-on-all-fronts' narrative.
Thanks Stefan for this very informative report and I agree with all of it, as an American Vet I can say we now have a totally worthless administration trumps complete cabinet is totally incompetent.
I've said before Ukraine has to stand it ground and not be sold out by trump and is ragtag bunch of incompetents Slava Ukraini
That was eye-opening, I had assumed a much greater US force in EU. Trump and Hegseth talk through their hats, because there is nothing in their skulls, nothing good or true in any case. Slava Ukraini.
Enlightening article. One question: nowadays, isn't nuclear capacity the one thing the USA bring to the NATO alliance and that NATO must rely upon the US for? France and the UK have a few but not much compared to the USA AFAIK ?
At this stage, I think we do. Plus, mobile launch sites (submarines and planes to launch the nukes) so as to make it hard for the other side to counter.
This cheered me up on a miserable Sunday morning in England. I was going to ask if US nuclear weapons in Europe changed the picture. However, according to chat GPT the US has only about 100 nukes (about 2% of its arsenal) stationed in Europe compared with over 500 of Britain and France combined.
Only 100? How many does it take to pretty much destroy a country? And does it really matter too much whether the nukes are launched from Europe, Iowa, or at sea?
Brilliant analysis Stefan, is there any way you can make sure all European heads of state and their assistants see this? essential reading. no point in Us Admin--they want to believe lies as well as spout them. But it would be nice if NY times of Washington post was to run it.....worth a try maybe. trust it will run in Kyiv Post, not that US reads it in the main
It's probably unnecessary. The puzzle is that European media, apart from hand wringing about how awful Trump and his cronies are, fails to challenge the US narrative. Fortunately, our diplomats don't rely on the newspapers.
Thanks Stefan for this very different view on US Strength in Europe from Germany. I think, we in Europe shouldn't complain alot about what the US administration is saying. They are how they are. Our responsibility (esp. in Germany) is to accept the fact, that we are in war with RUS and act like that. Tell the peaple the truth, get sam activated. Scale up our industry, its a lot bigger than RUS or US. Gie Ukraine all they need and we can procure. It's the cheapest kind of investment in our security. And act united. There are ca. 450 Mill people in EU and 2/3 BIP as US. Don't be scared but act calmly. The US administration will learn the hard way, that the things allway's are not as easy at they seem. Be patient and let the US act dumb. But we must wake up now, very quickly
They are trying hard to get along with the Mafia Don, hoping that he will not throw them under the bus - and they would dearly love to keep Patriots, AMRAAMs and F-16 spare parts flowing. But, they will NOT capitulate, especially if it’s dressed up as a “we must stop the war” peace at any price.
One of my favorite quotes (which may have come from Stefan Korshak) is that “Ukraine would fight on if all that’s left is two twelve year old boys with a sling shot”, because they know how brutal and genocidal their existence would be under the Russian boot if they are overrun.
What I believe is occurring, is that the European heads of state, including Ukraine, were willing to give the Pillsbury-Doughboy Ego a chance to see what he could actually do with his over-hyped “Peace Negotiations” to end the war. There was a time when there may have been some hope that he wanted to really be the strong man on the stage and arm twist the Russians into something acceptable.
Now that there is more growing understanding of the depth of his “What’s in it for me” motivations and confirmation that his team is composed mostly of full fledged useful idiots, hopefully we are closing in on the day when Europe and Ukraine will decide to tell Trump and his chest puffing administration that their negotiating skills just won’t be required and they can go home. [indication they are gearing up for this at KyivIndepent article here; https://kyivindependent.com/france-to-host-emergency-summit-on-ukraine-as-trump-administration-begins-peace-negotiations-with-russia-without-input-from-europe/ ]
It will have to be done a bit diplomatically, though, because we (those of us who are pro-Ukraine) don’t want to hurt the delicate feelings of the Americans (of which I’m one) in order to try to keep a few things like Patriot missiles, 155mm ammo and necessary F-16 spare parts flowing.
Written with a lot of clarity. Fortunately, European capitals already have experience of Trump's first four years. It's unlikely anyone has any illusions about how he operates. That said, the Starmer government in the UK is keeping quiet. Maybe they think they can repeat Blair's failed attempt to influence GWB before the Iraq invasion.
Btw, it may please you to know that Germany is already producing more 155mm ammunition than the US. And it's being shipped to Ukraine. Rheinmetall alone has new munitions plants coming on line across the continent and elsewhere this year, as do manufacturers in many other European nations. Trump can starve Ukraine of Patriots, but Ukraine won't run out of shells. And threatening Europe will just undercut the US arms industry as it would look to itself and elsewhere for armaments. Just look at Poland's decision to buy heavy weapons from South Korea. It is still buying arms from the US, but, after Trump's first administration, they decided not to become too reliant on the USA.
Martin,
I did not know of that statistic on Rheinmetall 155mm production, but you are right, that’s a wonderful fact. I was aware of Rheinmetall being an enthusiastic participant in joining Ukraine, on their soil, for arms production collaboration. Bring it on. I was stationed in Germany for six years and always appreciated their work ethic and their sense of being European as much as being German.
I’m still waiting for the media to stop saying Europe can’t provide enough for Ukraine’s defense without the U.S., and get to “they can and will”.
It's quickly getting to the point where Ukraine 'can and will' itself. Over the next two years, it'll be receiving $70bn from the interest that's accrued on frozen Russian assets. Apparently ring-fenced for weapons and munitions, the first transfer of 3bn Euros arrived last month. There are moves afoot to give them those frozen assets in their entirety as reparations. I'm no expert, but it's probably safe to assume that process will take years. Meanwhile, the interest will keep piling up and keep on being transferred to Ukraine. It means Ukraine can now shift from receiving second or third-hand donations of obsolete weapons to buying equipment far superior to anything Russia can manufacture. The first Patria, Lynx, and Boxer AFVs have arrived. Plus large numbers of CV90s (probably the world's best AFV) are on order too. That's in addition to the sizeable amount already donated by Denmark and Sweden. These are all orders placed two years ago and It's only small amounts so far. As the production lines expand and speed up this year they'll arrive in far greater numbers. Ukraine is already producing more of their own next-gen howitzer―the Bohdana―than are being donated. And Ukraine is buying a lot of the French-made CAESARs too. All this has been reported widely in the defense press but it never seems to get picked up by the mainstream media in the US (or here in the UK too). I guess it runs counter to the lazy 'Russia-advancing-on-all-fronts' narrative.
Thanks Stefan for this very informative report and I agree with all of it, as an American Vet I can say we now have a totally worthless administration trumps complete cabinet is totally incompetent.
I've said before Ukraine has to stand it ground and not be sold out by trump and is ragtag bunch of incompetents Slava Ukraini
That was eye-opening, I had assumed a much greater US force in EU. Trump and Hegseth talk through their hats, because there is nothing in their skulls, nothing good or true in any case. Slava Ukraini.
Thanks, Stefan, for this real-world insight. So much coverage in the MSM assumes that the US can dictate to the world.
Enlightening article. One question: nowadays, isn't nuclear capacity the one thing the USA bring to the NATO alliance and that NATO must rely upon the US for? France and the UK have a few but not much compared to the USA AFAIK ?
Do you need more than a few?
At this stage, I think we do. Plus, mobile launch sites (submarines and planes to launch the nukes) so as to make it hard for the other side to counter.
This cheered me up on a miserable Sunday morning in England. I was going to ask if US nuclear weapons in Europe changed the picture. However, according to chat GPT the US has only about 100 nukes (about 2% of its arsenal) stationed in Europe compared with over 500 of Britain and France combined.
Only 100? How many does it take to pretty much destroy a country? And does it really matter too much whether the nukes are launched from Europe, Iowa, or at sea?
Brilliant analysis Stefan, is there any way you can make sure all European heads of state and their assistants see this? essential reading. no point in Us Admin--they want to believe lies as well as spout them. But it would be nice if NY times of Washington post was to run it.....worth a try maybe. trust it will run in Kyiv Post, not that US reads it in the main
It's probably unnecessary. The puzzle is that European media, apart from hand wringing about how awful Trump and his cronies are, fails to challenge the US narrative. Fortunately, our diplomats don't rely on the newspapers.
Thanks Stefan for this very different view on US Strength in Europe from Germany. I think, we in Europe shouldn't complain alot about what the US administration is saying. They are how they are. Our responsibility (esp. in Germany) is to accept the fact, that we are in war with RUS and act like that. Tell the peaple the truth, get sam activated. Scale up our industry, its a lot bigger than RUS or US. Gie Ukraine all they need and we can procure. It's the cheapest kind of investment in our security. And act united. There are ca. 450 Mill people in EU and 2/3 BIP as US. Don't be scared but act calmly. The US administration will learn the hard way, that the things allway's are not as easy at they seem. Be patient and let the US act dumb. But we must wake up now, very quickly
"Jesus Christ intent on evicting the merchants and money-changers" 🤣🤣🤣
Thanks for putting things in perspective, both re the gotta-love-them ZSU and America's surprisingly small and light footprint in Europe.
Can ZSU fight the war without HIMARS, Patriot, early warning from radar satelite and AWACS planes?
Can ZSU buy ammunition on international market without US influence?
Yes.
They can and will.
Not because they want to.
They are trying hard to get along with the Mafia Don, hoping that he will not throw them under the bus - and they would dearly love to keep Patriots, AMRAAMs and F-16 spare parts flowing. But, they will NOT capitulate, especially if it’s dressed up as a “we must stop the war” peace at any price.
One of my favorite quotes (which may have come from Stefan Korshak) is that “Ukraine would fight on if all that’s left is two twelve year old boys with a sling shot”, because they know how brutal and genocidal their existence would be under the Russian boot if they are overrun.
Slava Ukraini !
Moral is one dimension and hardware another dimension.
ZSU would loose technical superiority without US support. They will have fewer and less powerfull weapons.
This can be offset în a battle but not în a long war.
The Japanese had high moral but they were blasted by american artillery and tanks.