As always illuminating. You wrote: “Word is this is because Syrsky isn’t happy about the situation around Kurahove or, if you’re cynical, Syrsky and Zelensky need someone to blame about Kurakhove.” I don’t think those two are mutually exclusive. However I would tend to be cynical. There have been too many situations like Kurahive. And Sysrki hasn’t reacted or done anything. He is clearly part of the problem.
"German diplomats and naval strategists in August 2014 saw a way to strike at their enemy Russia, a land power, using naval power projection creatively." Just for the sake of clarity, I think that should be "1914" not "2014"?
Nice idea about the sub but there are at least two problems. First, on 28th February 2022, Turkey invoked the Montreux Convention and closed the Bosphorus and Dardanelles to ALL warring naval vessels. It would be very hard to sneak a submarine through there. Probably impossible. And it is why the Russian Black Sea fleet can only be reinforced by small vessels from the Caspian Sea. And also why they now have only one submarine operational there too. If Turkey had not done this, there would be dozens of missile launching Russian submarines in the Black Sea bombarding Ukraine continuously (or as fast as they could make new cruise missiles). Ukraine is much better off with the Turkish action than without. The sub could come from either Romanian or Bulgarian navies but they do not have much that could be offered. If Turkey goes to war and NATO Article Five is invoked then it all changes.
Second, there's nowhere this sub could be based that the Russians could not hit in less than fifteen minutes with an Iskander. Very hard to resupply and refuel under those conditions.
Ukraine certainly wouldn’t want one of Canada’s decrepit subs, bought second-hand from the UK and plagued by problems from Day One. Of the four, only two are ever seaworthy at the same time.
As always illuminating. You wrote: “Word is this is because Syrsky isn’t happy about the situation around Kurahove or, if you’re cynical, Syrsky and Zelensky need someone to blame about Kurakhove.” I don’t think those two are mutually exclusive. However I would tend to be cynical. There have been too many situations like Kurahive. And Sysrki hasn’t reacted or done anything. He is clearly part of the problem.
Unfortunately I seriously doubt that Turkiye would let a submarine transit into the black sea.
I expect that the drone evolution will eventually take care of the problem.
"German diplomats and naval strategists in August 2014 saw a way to strike at their enemy Russia, a land power, using naval power projection creatively." Just for the sake of clarity, I think that should be "1914" not "2014"?
Nice idea about the sub but there are at least two problems. First, on 28th February 2022, Turkey invoked the Montreux Convention and closed the Bosphorus and Dardanelles to ALL warring naval vessels. It would be very hard to sneak a submarine through there. Probably impossible. And it is why the Russian Black Sea fleet can only be reinforced by small vessels from the Caspian Sea. And also why they now have only one submarine operational there too. If Turkey had not done this, there would be dozens of missile launching Russian submarines in the Black Sea bombarding Ukraine continuously (or as fast as they could make new cruise missiles). Ukraine is much better off with the Turkish action than without. The sub could come from either Romanian or Bulgarian navies but they do not have much that could be offered. If Turkey goes to war and NATO Article Five is invoked then it all changes.
Second, there's nowhere this sub could be based that the Russians could not hit in less than fifteen minutes with an Iskander. Very hard to resupply and refuel under those conditions.
https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2022/02/turkey-closes-the-dardanelles-and-bosphorus-to-warships/
What a fantastic read. Thank you for your continued efforts.
And yes, we should do a Goeben. But will Turkey allow a submarine to pass the Bosporus?
Ukraine certainly wouldn’t want one of Canada’s decrepit subs, bought second-hand from the UK and plagued by problems from Day One. Of the four, only two are ever seaworthy at the same time.
Amazing work Stefan. Thank you!
Thanks Stefa. Your reports are priceless.
Regards
Mike and Deb
Tasmania
Aistralia