Hi guys! We are in a proper Ukraine vs. Russia slugging match right now. For those of you who have been reading these reviews for a while, this means that the really most important development IMO is the basic fact that the good guys are trading blows with the bad guys on pretty much an equal basis.
Let's hope the extensive chatter about the "Ivan Khurs" getting 2 missiles on the same night is true and the Kremlin did well in appointing a submariner as the new boss of the Black Sea Fleet.
I don't read them all but they are one of my go-to updates as you do such a good job. I'm over-subscribed to so many things I'd love to see a $40 option as tbh $80 too much right now. ;-)
It's gonna be real fun top watch when Ukraine's drones get a little bigger and start firing off their own munitions ;)
The other day I looked up what the old French Durandal runway-cratering bomb weighs... interesting possibilities for damaging railway bridges in ways that won't be quickly repaired.
Thanks Stefan, but unlike WW2 the GUR attacks are missing scale and quantity. Oil producing facilities are not attacked, some of the largest refineries are out of range, and in any way the damage seems to be limited for 2-3 weeks of repair. It hurts but it’s not game changing (yet). If anything, we should have seen the impact on the retail market in some local district of Russia first, and there is none yet
According to a spreadsheet I saw yesterday on some Twitter thread, about 35-40% of refineries (in terms of processing capability, not numbers) are out of range (at Ural and further). After 2-3 week of repair another drone can come, rinse and repeat. It is not a game-changer, agreed, but it certainly can hurt, especially if scale and quantity would be increased.
Russia before the war was estimated to have 20% refining overcapacity to the point that Rosneft and Gazprom kept some of their refineries as a form of solidarity with the local communities (for many the only available jobs). Exports were stopped preemptively as Russia was also not sure about the impact. It had its own shortage last autumn in the mid of the harvesting seasons in Krasnodar - mainly logistical issues. Not this time. Gasoline was a small part of Russian exports and prices were not increasing that much but Putin regime can also react preemptively. Again the real impact would be if there are any shortages in the market, lines of cars waiting at the gas stations - can’t be hidden in our internet age. Not every strike causes complete halt of operations. The spreadsheet you refer to is just nameplate capacity and not actual outputs. Some of these refineries were built in the 60s. The most efficient and newest refinery is Tanaco in Tatarstan - outside of the current drone range. I guess if you include them, it will be close to 50%, and in terms of actual output over it.
That’s a recent strike on oil depot in Crimea. Damaged 3 out of 10, if not more! Now you see how much you can achieve with drones !? Not even the supply in Crimea can be cut.
Stefan, I go to you for the best and most factual reporting on the war. More is always appreciated.
Thanks Stefan, I which you every success in your excellent reporting and in defeating those terrorist Russian scumbags.
Thank you Stefan.
Let's hope the extensive chatter about the "Ivan Khurs" getting 2 missiles on the same night is true and the Kremlin did well in appointing a submariner as the new boss of the Black Sea Fleet.
He'll need those skill to do a fleet review.
I don't read them all but they are one of my go-to updates as you do such a good job. I'm over-subscribed to so many things I'd love to see a $40 option as tbh $80 too much right now. ;-)
It's gonna be real fun top watch when Ukraine's drones get a little bigger and start firing off their own munitions ;)
The other day I looked up what the old French Durandal runway-cratering bomb weighs... interesting possibilities for damaging railway bridges in ways that won't be quickly repaired.
Thanks Stefan, but unlike WW2 the GUR attacks are missing scale and quantity. Oil producing facilities are not attacked, some of the largest refineries are out of range, and in any way the damage seems to be limited for 2-3 weeks of repair. It hurts but it’s not game changing (yet). If anything, we should have seen the impact on the retail market in some local district of Russia first, and there is none yet
According to a spreadsheet I saw yesterday on some Twitter thread, about 35-40% of refineries (in terms of processing capability, not numbers) are out of range (at Ural and further). After 2-3 week of repair another drone can come, rinse and repeat. It is not a game-changer, agreed, but it certainly can hurt, especially if scale and quantity would be increased.
Regarding retail prices, there is a note from Don here : https://xxtomcooperxx.substack.com/p/dons-weekly-25-march-2024-part-1
"At the beginning of March, Russia already suspended gasoline exports for six months to increase the domestic supply and lower the local prices"
Russia before the war was estimated to have 20% refining overcapacity to the point that Rosneft and Gazprom kept some of their refineries as a form of solidarity with the local communities (for many the only available jobs). Exports were stopped preemptively as Russia was also not sure about the impact. It had its own shortage last autumn in the mid of the harvesting seasons in Krasnodar - mainly logistical issues. Not this time. Gasoline was a small part of Russian exports and prices were not increasing that much but Putin regime can also react preemptively. Again the real impact would be if there are any shortages in the market, lines of cars waiting at the gas stations - can’t be hidden in our internet age. Not every strike causes complete halt of operations. The spreadsheet you refer to is just nameplate capacity and not actual outputs. Some of these refineries were built in the 60s. The most efficient and newest refinery is Tanaco in Tatarstan - outside of the current drone range. I guess if you include them, it will be close to 50%, and in terms of actual output over it.
https://twitter.com/front_ukrainian/status/1772168251667079263
That’s a recent strike on oil depot in Crimea. Damaged 3 out of 10, if not more! Now you see how much you can achieve with drones !? Not even the supply in Crimea can be cut.