Hi FB! Before I get to one of the more epic American security failures of about the last half-decade, a video of wildlife at the front. Also, this is a single-topic post, so if you’re reading this to find out what’s going on at the front, don’t bother, there’s no information about that here.
Whoever leaked this did the UAF a world of good. I know it's super counterintuitive logic, but I'd argue that the more info about Ukraine's plans that winds up in the public domain the better for a single, simple reason:
Russian planners will have no idea what information is truly relevant until it's too late.
If Ukraine literally leaked every plan, backup plan, alternate backup, and hedge mid-level staff officers dream up, Russia would be back to square one in terms of actually preparing for the fight to come. The more you throw sand into the enemy's eyes, the better.
The real surprise that cracks the Russian front is likely to come in the operational sphere, when focused precision strikes and sudden ground attacks break the vital connections between officers and line troops the Russian military system absolutely depends on. Where and even when Ukraine will strike is not going to be a secret to anyone looking down from a satellite at where brigades are deploying when they move to their staging areas.
What will shock Russian forces is the same thing that broke them in Kupiansk last September: they will give orders, but no one will receive them or they'll be so outdated as to be useless. Once isolated and fearing encirclement, Russian units will retreat - or hopefully surrender, like Iraqi conscripts did back in 1991.
The actual plan of attack Ukraine employs will evolve as the fighting unfolds, and might strike multiple fronts in quick succession before committing to any one.
I'd be willing to bet localized counteroffensives with legacy gear are all we'll see enter the fight until at least June, both because of weather and because you do NOT want to rush into this fight. Better to wear Russia down, prod every front, and only commit to a concentrated assault when and where a weakness has been proven.
Also, Ukraine needs twice as many Leopards and Challengers as it's been promised. Marders, Bradleys, and Strykers too.
I like to think that there is intense NATO cooperation and intelligence guiding and planning the UAF effort, given the level of public support. I like to think NATO leadership sees this horrible war as a huge opportunity to sharpen their skills and is operating with the highest level of expertise. I like to think this leak is really an intelligence misdirection, designed to unsettle the Russia forces and trick them into some sort of bad move. Or at least, mislead them as to the location of offensive movements. Because you might think, publishing a study showing centers of signal emissions might convince the Russians to move some assets, which might allow analysis and targeting by the allies. I like to think Ukraine will be armed with a sizable cache of JDAMs and launch methods, these things being a much more potent force than the tanks and infantry that follow a heavy and precise bombardment. The US has some experience in overrunning trenches on flat ground , that is what the US Army did in the second Gulf War. Albeit, with the help of B52's bombing like mad with 2000 lb stuff before the invasion launched. A good force of JDAMs will not be as devastating, but it could get the job done.
Could this be a Russian attempt to sow UAF and NATO distrust of American intelligence? Given how many loose canons could exist in American security (Snowden for example), and the presence of ultraconservative Trump supporters favorable to Russian autocracy, how reliable can the loyalty of federal employees be to the Constitution?
Whoever leaked this did the UAF a world of good. I know it's super counterintuitive logic, but I'd argue that the more info about Ukraine's plans that winds up in the public domain the better for a single, simple reason:
Russian planners will have no idea what information is truly relevant until it's too late.
If Ukraine literally leaked every plan, backup plan, alternate backup, and hedge mid-level staff officers dream up, Russia would be back to square one in terms of actually preparing for the fight to come. The more you throw sand into the enemy's eyes, the better.
The real surprise that cracks the Russian front is likely to come in the operational sphere, when focused precision strikes and sudden ground attacks break the vital connections between officers and line troops the Russian military system absolutely depends on. Where and even when Ukraine will strike is not going to be a secret to anyone looking down from a satellite at where brigades are deploying when they move to their staging areas.
What will shock Russian forces is the same thing that broke them in Kupiansk last September: they will give orders, but no one will receive them or they'll be so outdated as to be useless. Once isolated and fearing encirclement, Russian units will retreat - or hopefully surrender, like Iraqi conscripts did back in 1991.
The actual plan of attack Ukraine employs will evolve as the fighting unfolds, and might strike multiple fronts in quick succession before committing to any one.
I'd be willing to bet localized counteroffensives with legacy gear are all we'll see enter the fight until at least June, both because of weather and because you do NOT want to rush into this fight. Better to wear Russia down, prod every front, and only commit to a concentrated assault when and where a weakness has been proven.
Also, Ukraine needs twice as many Leopards and Challengers as it's been promised. Marders, Bradleys, and Strykers too.
I like to think that there is intense NATO cooperation and intelligence guiding and planning the UAF effort, given the level of public support. I like to think NATO leadership sees this horrible war as a huge opportunity to sharpen their skills and is operating with the highest level of expertise. I like to think this leak is really an intelligence misdirection, designed to unsettle the Russia forces and trick them into some sort of bad move. Or at least, mislead them as to the location of offensive movements. Because you might think, publishing a study showing centers of signal emissions might convince the Russians to move some assets, which might allow analysis and targeting by the allies. I like to think Ukraine will be armed with a sizable cache of JDAMs and launch methods, these things being a much more potent force than the tanks and infantry that follow a heavy and precise bombardment. The US has some experience in overrunning trenches on flat ground , that is what the US Army did in the second Gulf War. Albeit, with the help of B52's bombing like mad with 2000 lb stuff before the invasion launched. A good force of JDAMs will not be as devastating, but it could get the job done.
Could this be a Russian attempt to sow UAF and NATO distrust of American intelligence? Given how many loose canons could exist in American security (Snowden for example), and the presence of ultraconservative Trump supporters favorable to Russian autocracy, how reliable can the loyalty of federal employees be to the Constitution?