Jan. 22 — Day 333b — continued
Stuff for Ukraine — The Great Leopard Debate
Practically all of you will have read or heard that Berlin at the Friday Ramstein Conference failed to agree to release Leopard 2 tank deliveries to Ukraine, but in the wake of that “Nein” the Germans said that Ukrainian crew training could go forward, that talks on Leopard transfer to Ukraine are moving forward, and hints are appearing that some form of “deal” is going to get cut. This has been intensely reported in western platforms, and jaw-jacked ad naseum by the chattering class talk shows, so I won’t go repeat all that rhetoric here, I’ll just throw you a Leopard I and a Leopard 2 images, to remind everyone that we need to keep in mind there are two kinds of Leopards: a Cold War version better than most Russian tanks on the battlefield but roughly on par with the very best of them, and a post-Cold War version that will under the right circumstances give the UAF battlefield dominance in some sectors under some circumstances.
For me it was interesting and illuminating that as a result of recent switch-out of German Defense Ministers, the new one, Boris Pistorius, said that the Bundeswehr would now begin an inventory of Leopards in the Bundeswehr, effectively confirming that the one that just quit — Fr. Christine Lambrecht — had from the start of the war banned Bundeswehr leadership from doing just that. The standard reasons put forward for why Fr. Lambrecht did that are “prevent confirmation of the sorry state of the Bundeswehr” and “protect SPD boss Olaf Scholz from having to make a decision about sending German tanks to Ukraine”. That sounds credible to me, and I would expect that now Berlin will move forward in a highly bureaucratic and plodding way to decide how it can part with some Leopards and not jeopardize whatever German nationals security interests it’s worried about, that sending Leopards to Ukraine might entail.
I understand that the argument “Well, Germany has no nuclear deterrent, therefore, when Putin goes nuclear because of Ukraine, Germany will be targeted” has some currency in Deutschland. I personally don’t see how that’s possible as that argument assumes that the Kremlin would decide NATO’s article five would not function in case of a Russian nuclear strike on Germany, and that the US nuclear deterrent means nothing. But I digress.
On the Ukrainian side, yesterday evening a Ukraine army intelligence officer named Andriy Yusov said a “consensus” that Ukraine should get Leopards and that now the various players and parties are working on a complicated agreement that will keep everyone happy and allow that to happen.
A piece of that agreement, probably, will involve about 80 T-80 tanks in Cypriot hands that, I’m guessing will find their way to Ukraine in exchange for Leopards sent to Cyprus. But overall my take on the whole Leopard affair is that Scholz has been cornered and now the dithering will be on timing and numbers of Leopards. Image of a T-80 attached.
There is a school of thought that really, the Great Leopard Debate is academic because the discussion is about dozens of Leopards contributed by several European states, and really to conduct big offensives Ukraine needs the fat side of several hundred. An excellent lay out of that view is here:
The counter-point I would make to that is, in some terrain under certain conditions, Leopard 2 or tanks on par with it, like Britain’s Challenger 2, are — again, always assuming skilled crews and proper tactics — fully capable of making UAF ground forces if not unbeatable then at least nearly overwhelmingly powerful. It’s really pretty simple: the targeting systems, cannon, optics, munitions, communications and armor of these late-model NATO tanks is so superior to what the Russians have, that a tank like Leopard can sit up on a ridge and pick off anything coming its way, with impunity. And, if the UAF is attacking, it can sit up on a ridge and pick off anything on the ground that shoots at the Ukrainian attack, again almost with impunity.
There are a couple of prerequisites for this of course one of which being the NATO tank has to be protected from air attack. Ukraine has no air force capable of establishing control of the air, to speak of, but Ukrainian air space is probably the world’s best-defended by anti-aircraft systems. The Russian air force avoids Ukrainian air space right now.
The other prerequisite is what in WW2 and in the Cold War was called “tank country” — terrain that was open enough that a tank sitting on a ridge could see most of what is in front of it, and the other side to get to the tank has to cross several hundred meters or hopefully a kilometer or more of that open ground, before it can have a chance of hurting a tank on the ridge. I’ve attached a few pix of the ground around the Bakhmut sector.
My opinion, if the UAF had Leopard 2, even a few dozen of them, it would dominate battlefields in that kind of terrain, much in the same way that the UAF has dominated the Russian logistical rear areas, by being able to use HIMARS and M270 to hit HQs, ammo depots and similar high value targets, at basically no risk to the UAF. So my argument is that no, even several dozen Leopard 2 would be a battlefield game changer. We’ll see.
Stuff for Ukraine — All sorts of other stuff
So much weaponry got promised Ukraine in the last three weeks that it’s impractical to list it all here. I’ve attached a graphic that covers most of it, but remember, this isn’t even all the announced deliveries, and it is absolutely clear that there are unpublicized deliveries going on as well. But first important point, in terms of simple mass, this is huge, this is clear proof NATO/US have decided to send Ukraine as much arms and material as Ukraine can handle and they can part with. A Pentagon spokesman said on Friday that rough numbers this will be more than enough heavy weapons for Ukraine to equip two combat brigades fully. Just to keep things real, we need to remember that according to General Zaluzhny, for a really serious offensive, his estimate, he needs to be able to commit somewhere between six and eight combat brigades, minimum, to the attack.
The Swedes — One of the highlights absolutely was Sweden, as you will have no doubt read elsewhere they have announced early deliveries of their CV90 infantry fighting vehicle, fifty units, an extremely powerful, thoroughly modern weapon. A longer-term promise is the Archer artillery system, probably the world’s best 155mm howitzer at present, but, how many and how to support it in the field and train the Ukrainians is going to take time figuring out. One of Archer’s advertising bullet points is that it can concentrate fire like no gun on earth — I think the numbers are 21 shells downrange, each theoretically flying to a one-meter specific grid coordinate and every one of them timed to hit within seconds of each other, in 2 1/2 minutes. Images attached.
The Americans — Dropped $2.5 billion in promised military aid in the last three weeks, but frankly, it looks like Washington is dragging its feet on the war-winning systems, take your pick if that’s a tactic to pressure the Germans on Leopard, or if it’s traditional American domestic politics, or if there’s someone in the White House still wanting not to antagonize the Russians, or if one of the operational security bureaus wrote a position paper on how bad it would be if the Russians captured one of these top-end US weapons. In any case, in the latest very big package, absent were several line items the Americans could have released, and helped the Ukrainians take a big step towards ground battlefield dominance, and didn’t: ATACMS (long range) missiles, Gray Eagle strike drones, GDLSB missiles (pictured), and of course Abrams tanks.
This is not to say it was only Spam and Studebaker trucks, among other excellent material the Americans this time kicked in HARMS missiles, more Excalibur guided 155mm shells as well as 59 Bradleys, 90 Strykers (both top-end infantry carriers), ammunition trucks, yet more HUMMVs, about 95,000 rounds of 155mm shell, 20,000 rounds of 105mm shell, and 12,000 rounds of 120mm mortar, which is impressive but of course the Ukrainians could probably shoot off those shells in about two weeks of very intense fighting.
In the better-late-than-never category are eight Avenger anti-aircraft systems, which in reality is Stinger missiles and a reasonable radar on a HUMMV. Excellent for shooting down Iranian drones, would have been nice to have them in November. Image attached.
Plus there are more missiles for HIMARS, for which Ukraine will only cease using when the Russians stop exposing targets in their military rear area. But the biggest-ticket item, for my money, coming from the Americans in January is via Israel: pre-positioned, American 155mm shells there will go to Ukraine. The key bit is how many: 300,000. This is a massive bump to General Zaluzhny’s shell reserve and probably, now, the single biggest precondition for the next major Ukrainian offensive. When the howitzer shells from Israel get to Ukraine.
Britain — It is worth noting that London seems intent on being seen to punching above its weight, and the fact is they are. Widely reported were the ten Challenger 2 tanks, but also coming are 10 (rising to 40) AS90 artillery pieces, 600 Brimstone long-range anti-tank missiles, and more missiles for HIMARS. 600 million pounds sterling. Under discussion is delivery of the Storm Shadow cruise missile, this is more rumor/speculation than hard news, but if in Ukrainian hands it would become the first properly long-range precision-strike system received by Kyiv.
Netherlands — This is a good example of a European state that made a decision looking beyond its borders. The Dutch two days ago announced they would bump up the transfer of Ukraine of not one but TWO Patriot anti-aircraft systems. This would, once deployed, raise the total number of Patriot systems in Ukraine to four (the other two from the US and Germany). This is NATO’s top-end anti-aircraft missile and in most situations can full shut down air space, at any altitude, out to about 40 kilometers. The missiles are very expensive and it would be pointless to use them to shoot down Iranian putt-putt drones. One possible use of several Patriot systems would be to park them near a section of front the Ukrainians wanted to attack in, and where the Patriots were, the Ukrainian air force and drones would have almost total air superiority.
Also on the subject of air weapons, a Dutch official towards the end of the week (Netherland Times citing the Foreign Minister) said his government was studying a transfer of American F-16 combat jets to Ukraine which, as far as I know, marks the first time an F-16 operator directly suggested handing over Vipers to Ukraine. Yet another image of a Viper, this time with all the stuff it can carry, attached.
The US representative to the OSCE said sure, Washington always has supported European states contributing to Ukrainian defense, so either the guy was offering a personal opinion, which I very much doubt, or this is an indicator that for a long time the Americans have been telling NATO members “we have no issues with your sending our stuff to Ukraine” and the delay has been the European NATO members and their own internal politics.
Finland — Announced 400 million Euro in new Ukraine military assistance, including “heavy artillery and ammunition”. This is a record for Finland and also exactly what Ukraine needs.
Finland is one of the European states very willing to send Leopards to Ukraine.
Poland — Is another country that wants to see Leopards in Ukraine now, and the Prime Minister went on the record on Thursday that if German doesn’t release the tanks then Poland will break contract and send them without Berlin’s permission. I assume this means both Berlin and Warsaw believe a deal will be worked out, but it will take time, so it is useful for politicians to sound tough while that time passes. Warsaw reportedly also is sending more of its Krab howitzers, which are doing good service in Ukraine, and also an unnamed number of S60 anti-aircraft cannon, a Cold War system so old it’s one of those weapons military model makers like to build (image), but, it shoots explosive shells rapid fire, so that is useful against drones and cruise missiles.
continued further…