Feb. 24 — Day 366 — Thank you readers, 82mm and Bobwar, More Mystery Missiles Mash Mariupol
Hi FB!
Well guys, we made it! One year. There’s plenty to be retrospective about, but I’ll leave that to the mainstream media, they’re going nuts on the one-year anniversary thing. This is about you.
Main thing, I just thank all of you who have been reading all this, for as long as you have. Feedback on this blog, meaning you writing something back to me, has helped me in all sorts of ways. Thanks to you I’ve caught errors, confirmed facts, obtained tips, gotten linked up to unique sources, even received scientific confirmation of what I thought, at the time, were some pretty darn goofy hypotheses of mine. I am still astounded that I can sit down and write something and people all over the world seem to be interested in reading it. I don’t think a day has gone by when, this whole year, one way or another, I didn’t learn something from a reader somehow.
I’m probably a little too old and set in my ways to embrace social media and treat digital chatter like actual human contact, like modern people do. Still, as it turns out, if you are reporting a war, and you post something on the internet, a click or thumbs up from someone you know, or more often have never met and you probably never will, actually does help. I am one of those people who laughs at people who care about thumbs up and clicks and smiley emojis. Yet, over the last year, those little digital images and helpful notes and questions from you guys were a real help to remind me that all this isn’t going on in isolation, there are people out there that want to know, it’s not just a small group of weirdos and news junkies that care about Ukrainians and Ukraine.
The opening photo is crew and probably infantry from 47th Mech Brigade, aboard a heavily modernized ex-Slovenian T-55 tank. All the pine trees are a probable indicator the unit is in training somewhere in central or north Ukraine.
82mm mortars and “bowar”
LINGUISTIC PECULIARITY OF POSSIBLE INTEREST TO SOME READERS: In German Stacheldraht, in Ukrainian Колючий дріт and in Russian Колючая проволока, the 19th century invention “barbed wire” is pronounced “bobwar”, of course, in much of the American Southwest.
I’ll open with a video from this UAF officer, who is a guy we should listen to, and who might just be in need of some bobwar. Nom d’guerre Scorpion.
According to his account, Scorpion was a mortarman and then a mortar unit commander way back in the 2010s, in Donbas, so he is literally one of the guys who gave the UAF teeth in its early days. He was there when the Ukrainian army, at the beginning, started down the road to what I would argue is pretty much world class artillery professionalism. All that stuff that the UAF does really well now — mini-drones, avoiding blue-on-blue, putting rounds down range really fast, avoiding counter-battery, syncing tubes and observers with off-the-shelf software, decentralizing control, getting comfortable fast with foreign kit, and top factor, letting real life need on the ground dictate the direction of change — he was a direct participant.
Image attached is a UAF crew operating the humble 82mm mortar, because Scorpion has something to say about that weapon, and I think he’s a guy worth listening to.
According to Scorpion, the UAF has an 82mm ammo shortage, and this is a problem, because of the way the Russians are attacking these days: with small units of infantry that advance until they get pinned down, and then they work their way forward, paying in casualties for whatever advance they manage, and then they start digging themselves in. This gives the Russians two advantages: first if they get close enough to the Ukrainian lines they can see the Ukrainians shooting and call in artillery, and second if the Ukrainians aren’t shooting then another batch of infantrymen sneaks up, and uses this new line of holes and the launching point for the next attack.
So although some of the media is reporting “mass infantry attacks” by the Russians, particularly at Vuhledar and Bakhmut, a better description would probably be slow infantry infiltration forward and the tactic of “gnawing” (Soviet military term) into defenses bit by bit, with the objectives of finding targets, inflicting casualties, and slowly expanding ground held, using lightly-armed troops.
The solution, Scorpion says, is 82mm mortars in the hands of the companies opposite these attacks, because the rounds are cheap, the weapon is simple to use, and by doctrine armies — including the UAF — put these weapons directly into the hands of infantry units, meaning they can put rounds on target in three minutes or less after spotting movement. Since observation ranges typically are around a kilometer, this means, assuming rounds are available, a bunch of Russian infantry picking its way forward would go about 200–300 meters before the mortar stonk would drive them to ground.
The downstream problem, Scorpion says, is that the UAF is really short in 82mm ammo (costing about $50/round) so it has to use howitzers against the Russian infantry, firing 155mm ammo (costing about $500/round).
Besides the money, he says, howitzers are controlled by the artillery command in artillery units, so, typically it takes about ten minutes for a howitzer call for fire to hit something. In ten minutes, the typical Russian infantry attack can walk 600–900 meters, meaning, they can get close enough to start using their rifles and even grenades against the Ukrainians.
Mr. Scorpion’s solution is simple: “Send 82mm ammo by the trainload, now, we need it.”
I’ll spare you the long essay on western fixation with wonder weapons that should end the war overnight. In any cases, it’s not like nothing is being done. About a month ago the Ukrainians announced they had started manufacturing 82mm mortar rounds — “in cooperation with a NATO nation”. This government announcement got shoved out into the Ukrainian media bigtime. Here are a couple of samples (in English):
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/01/11/7384422/
So the bottom line from the Scorpion video, of course, is you can’t shoot a government press release at the enemy.
Which brings me to barbed wire.
Seriously. If the main Russian tactic these days is forward infiltration of infantry without armored vehicle support, then the tactical counter is more than a century old: concertina and tangle-foot. Yes land mines will do the job, as will drones, as will precision-guided munitions, as will a battalion-level 155mm time on target, as will Specter gunships on station. Heck, dig a proper trench, fill it with reasonably trained soldiers armed with bolt-action rifles, and you can stop a light infantry attack that way.
But barbed wire is cheap, it doesn’t hide in the ground and explode when a kid steps on it after the war is over, you don’t need to argue with the Germans whether sending barbed wire to Ukraine might make Russia aggressive, it has no moving parts, and trust me, you wouldn’t have to train Ukrainians how to string wire and build a barrier, just give them the gloves, wire, snips, and stake materials.
(Soldiers are pretty similar the world over, but seriously, the Ukrainians really do have a natural advantage when it comes to building stuff.)
So now I am scratching my head, why aren’t those brilliant NATO staff officers so super-skilled in anticipatory logistics and armed with all those computers and Excel spreadsheets and secure chat groups not shoving trainloads of barbed wire, right now, down the UAF’s throat?
Standard excuses would be “the Ukrainians never asked” and “the trucks are carrying higher-priority stuff” and “an army that focuses on fortification materials could lose its offensive spirit.”
But to me, something just isn’t adding up. These Russian light infantry attacks have been in progress since about September, we can take it as a given the Wagner guys aren’t trained well in clearing obstacles, and the key for the UAF to stop these light infantry attacks, is slowing down the Russian infantry as it tries to close to 500m or closer from Ukrainian infantry positions. So where’s the damn bobwar?
Two mages of barbed wire attached, one from the Eastern Front in WWI, to illustrate this is not a new technology, and and the second from the Polish-Belarusian border to illustrate NATO has the stuff.
The fighting
The big offensive is still in progress, and it’s still basically doing very badly.
Bakhmut — Wagner boss Prigozhin spent the last week complaining about how the army isn’t sending enough ammo, which drew plenty of flak from the anti-Prigozhin crowd that pointed out, really, Wagner has had ammo priority for several months and all he’s complaining about now is supply priority equal to the rest of the Russian army.
On Friday Prigozhin said things are improving, and the Russian internet is saying that Wagner recaptured several blocks of southern Bakhmut. The heavy majority of Ukrainian sources say defenses are holding and the Russians are taking serious casualties. A few are saying yes the Russians are getting cut to bits but the Ukrainians may have to pull back to better ground nearby.
Another few are saying no, the Ukrainians are counterattacking in places, and the more reliable Telegram channels are putting out videos of UAF BMPs and even tanks supposedly blasting Wagner fighters in a building or a woodline. Video of at least one case of that attached. Both sides have shown few armored vehicles in past fighting, so perhaps this is an indicator the Ukrainians are either very hard-pressed or that the Wagner fighters are so specifically trained and equipped that firing an anti-tank rocket isn’t in their skill set.
Some Ukrainians are saying the Russians have shoved a lot of regular troops, i.e. almost certainly paratrooper infantry, to continue the attacks. Both sides are accusing the other of faking social media content to “prove” Bakhmut is holding or about to fall.
My comment on Bakhmut at this point is, Bakhmut has been “under heavy attack” for about three months now. It’s not fully clear what’s going on at the moment, but based on trends, betting on a big change in the situation in the next few days would probably be a pretty low-percentage bet.
Maryinka, Kreminne and Makievka — Russian assaults are continuing here and according to both sides’ accounts getting nowhere.
Vuhledar — I get the impression via indirect sources (press officers in sector, video of Russian POWs, etc.) that the Russians have gotten some infantry into the south-west suburbs and the Ukrainians are counterattacking to dig them out.
According to unconfirmed reports, an LPR unit attached to the hapless Russian marine units stuck with attacking here mutinied. Very believable, but see the part about confirmation.
What is confirmed, again, is pretty poor command and use of the 155th Marines. Attached is a video of two POWs who tell captures in 72nd Mech Brigade that, basically, they were stuck out on the edge of the front line and abandoned by senior officers. No food, no ammo, no evacuation of casualties. It appears eventually they surrendered to infantry from the 72nd that counterattacked/advanced to clear the kill zone.
Along with that, I’ve attached a proper Russian patriotic video, specifically about the 155th. You can decide which one is real. But the point is, we get to see both videos, and I doubt back in the Russian Far East, where these Marines are from, the POW video gets much traction. Meaning, the next batch to get sent into the teeth of UAF defenses at Vuhledar, are pretty likely to get abandoned by their commanders and shot to bits, as well. There was another big killing on Friday, apparently, but that’s not confirmed.
Long-range war
The Ukrainians have hit Mariupol, and specifically the airport, for the last three days, with something. Initial reports that a warehouse at the airport west of the city was hit by two explosions, according to reporter Andrii Tsaplienko.
This flushed Russian aircraft into the sky (Su-25s observed so we can assume they were just scrambled to get the heck off the airfield), set fuel dumps on fire, and triggered several rounds of hand-wringing and indignation on the Russian side that the evil Ukrainians are attacking “peaceful” Mariupol.
On the 21st reportedly there were 15 explosions, at night, on the 22nd, 11 explosions, and on the 23rd, during thee day, three explosions. Two reportedly hit the Ilych steel factory area, and one somewhere near the airport. Initial reports that a warehouse at the airport west of the city was hit by two explosions tonight.
What were the Ukrainians shooting? Mariupol is possibly out of HIMARS range, although given Ukraine’s record of conducting successful “artillery raids” (run your gun right up to the front line, fire, run back, hit the other guy a lot deeper in his supply/support sector than he thought you had the range for) in the past, you have to suspect this is what they did here. The way I read the map if the Ukrainians had the chutzpah to run their HIMARS right up into Vuhledar’s suburbs, the rockets could have reached Mariupol airport. If the wind was out of the north the Ukrainians absolutely are clever enough to use it to extend HIMARS range. Map with some red arrows pointing towards Mariupol, in a red circle, attached.
Observation: After a whole year of war there are still plenty of people who think red arrows on maps are just the bee’s knees.
Anyway, not least because the New York Times declared it a “mystery”, right now it’s speculation time on what the Ukrainians were using to hit Mariupol.
General consensus seems to make the most likely candidates would be the GLSDB rocket, which basically is a glide bomb built into a 227mm rocket that can fly up to 150 km. Normal HIMARS missiles max out at about 80 km. Deliveries of the weapon were announced last month, but, consensus was it wasn’t in production. Maybe Saab had a bunch of munitions sitting in warehouse waiting for a customer, and the reports that the system isn’t functional yet, was a way to give the customer an edge.
If not the GLSDB, then perhaps the Ukrainians got their hands on/built a packet of kamikaze drones, but, it seems like over the last three days there were about 30 explosions overal around Mariupol, and past record the Ukrainians do kamikaze drones in smaller numbers. Or maybe they came up with another batch of Smerch rockets, although honestly the strikes seemed a lot more accurate than one would expect from that system.
Another possibility is American guided bombs rigged to be dropped off Ukrainian combat jets, this technology is called JDAMS and it’s existed for quite while, and the Americans said they were giving the system to Ukraine, but if there is one thing this war has taught us, it’s a long time between “We’re giving Ukraine this” and “We Ukrainians have this in our hands and we say ‘thank you’”. Those things fly all sorts of possible distances depending on how high the jet is, whether the bomb has a rocket assist, maybe the bomb has glider wings, probably Earth rotation is a factor, etc.
Super-upgraded JDAMS picture attached, but to be clear, there is no evidence that I’ve seen this particularly type of guided bomb is even en route to the Ukrainians, never mind in their hands.
Whatever it is, the location of the use of this new long-range weapon is at minimum an indicator that the UAF thinks the fattest rear area targets at medium range are in the south. It also might be an early indicator of the next UAF offensive.
Video attached of Mariupol pro-Russia “military journalist”. He says he is “shocked” Mariupol got hit because he thought “there was some kind of agreement” between Ukraine and Russia that Mariupol targets wouldn’t get attacked, because Russia was expending a lot of resources on reconstruction. (Of destruction caused by the Russian army). This is a good example, I think, of the mindset of the ruling class in occupied territories: until the Ukrainian military physically makes its presence known, the natural thinking of the pro-Russian citizen is that Russian rule is unshakable and forever.
Final note, the spokeslady of Joint Forces South, name of Nataliya Gumeniuk, today made an official statement that Mariupol, and I quote “The Mariupol direction is no longer completely unattainable for us.” So at minimum we know Kyiv wants the world to think the UAF has a “new” weapon that can reach past 80 km.
In fact, they started the war with Soviet systems that short further than that (Tochka-U and Smerch), they have hit airfields 500 km inside Russia with kamikaze drones, and although the Americans SAY the max range of HIMARS rockets sent to Ukraine is 80km, maybe the Americans are fibbing. Or maybe the Ukrainians figured out how to engineer the American rocket to fly further.
New bottom-of-the-barrel scrapings record
As some of you recall the Russians back in May, after telling us they had a bazillion tanks and bottomless reserves of more, decided to take 40 Vietnam-era T-62 tanks out of storage in the Urals region, and the Ukrainian internet laughed and giggled as these museum pieces wound their way to the southern sector, where a bunch of them were destroyed or captured in the Kherson offensive in November. Apparently the Russian army was hurting so badly for tanks even then, that they took some T-62s that had been upgraded a bit for sale in Africa, and sent them to Ukraine.
Well, press reverse on the video player, because someone spotted a trainload of BTR-50 armored personnel carriers in Russia, en route to the front. This is a post Korean War vehicle that was obsolete, conservatively, 70 years ago. Image of train photo and Wiki-type photo of the mighty Socialist and oh-so-loyal-to-Moscow (sarcasm) Czechoslovakian army, attached.
Propaganda war, Ukrainian style:
Check out this video
https://t.me/truexanewsua/69614
It seems like the Ukrainian special ops/internet geek guys broke into a popular FM radio channels in Crimea (87,7 FM Sputnik is the attached video but there is evidence that at least a half dozen stations got taken over) in Crimea and broadcast this to listeners, along with the Ukrainian national anthem:
“Citizens of Ukraine! I am (Ukraine military intelligence head) Kyryl Budanov. All stolen Ukrainian territories will be returned. Donbass, the Autonomous Republic of Crimea, and all the south of Ukraine, will be returned home, forever. We will find every single traitor of Ukraine’s forefathers, no matter where that person hides, and they all will be liquidated. All patriots — the time for action has arrived. Wait for us. We are coming. Glory to Ukraine!”
I've been reading your stuff since last summer. At first on Facebook where I am not a denizen. Really like seeing you on Substack. Greatly appreciate what you have been doing!
Paul