Feb 15 — Day 1087a — Believe in the ZSU, NATO Reality Check, It Sure Seemed Like a War to Me

Hi All!

The dominant news theme this week has been all the Trump administration officials coming to Europe like Jesus Christ intent on evicting the merchants and money-changers from the Temple (Matthew 21:12–13). They spent their time talking about how the Europeans need to step up on defense of the continent because America won’t any more. I’ll take that on in later sections.

Believe in the ZSU! (Вірте в ЗСУ!)

The point to these blogs pretty much always has been to present information about Ukraine and the war to people that probably didn’t make the mainstream or, to offer background and context that I think helps understand what’s going on in the war. I try and keep the first person to a minimum and aside from snarkiness I avoid engaging readers. People don’t need pep talks, they need information, is my view.

HOWEVER, I will now depart from that old school journo practice in this section, because I’m getting all manner of messaging and worried communications from people who, to me, seem pretty appalled at the new US national leadership and how it’s going about foreign policy and the Russo-Ukraine War. It seems like every day is bringing disastrous news and more evidence that all the awful suspicions are true, the Trump administration fully intends to throw Ukraine under the bus.

In hopes that this will help even a few of you to sleep a little better and worry a little less, I say to you: Take heart!

Ukraine’s fate isn’t in the right wing of the US Republican party, or the Kremlin. It’s in the hands of the Ukrainian people, and more specifically the Ukrainian armed forces, the Збройні сили України. The ZSU. There is a saying in Ukraine. Everyone knows it: “Believe in the ZSU”.

It means, Putin can’t defeat Ukraine unless the ZSU allows it. It means, as long as the ZSU is holding the line, Ukrainians don’t have to live in a police state.

But also, neither Trump nor anyone else can impose conditions on Ukraine, as long as the ZSU stands. It’s already clear: No one dictates terms to the ZSU on the battlefield. Yes, they lose battles sometimes, but the ZSU wins far more often than they lose. They are lethal. They have already proved they can stop the Russian army, without foreign assistance. No one, not even the craziest people in the Kremlin, entertain the fantasy of the Russian army blotting out Ukraine as an independent state. Because of the ZSU.

Anyone reading this and nervous about Ukraine being sold out, betrayed, marginalized, hung out to dry or otherwise given the Munich 1938 treatment, I think would do well to remember: The ZSU is still out there. They are on the line. It’s snowing a lot in Ukraine right now. That means there are tens of thousands of men and women in dirt and freezing their butts off, to make sure that line is always manned. Their sacrifice is real and everyone knows it.

The image attached I think is one of the best of the entire war. To make it clear, the person at the other end of the phone is “Кохана”, which is a very specific to Ukrainian word that means something like “Love”, “Lover”, “Dear” or “Cherished”. Most often it’s a pet name from a man to his wife or girlfriend.

This image I spotted on the Telegram channel of the MP Mariana Bezgula. Valentine’s Day.

The point to the cartoon is, obviously, sacrifice. There are husbands and fathers and sons (mostly) on the line, in the ZSU, they are fighting and dying to hold that line. It is churlish and mean-minded to denigrate their sacrifice, but it is just as bad to question the ZSU’s ability to fight. Shame on those who do.

But it doesn’t matter, not really. The Kremlins and White Houses can talk all they want about the poor, helpless, dependent Ukrainians. They can beat their chests about their “awesome” armies and their “unstoppable” militaries.

Meanwhile, the ZSU isn’t going anywhere. Attack them and you walk into a buzz saw. Not theoretical. For real.

The fact that Ukraine won’t have to accept a dictated peace, that neither the Trump people nor Putin can just make Ukraine do what they want no matter how much they wish it, that sooner or later this avalanche of “bad news” about America and Ukraine is going to turn is because of the ZSU. Sooner or later all those narratives of doom and surrender will smash headlong into the reality, or more exactly, the fact of the ZSU. Every soldier on the battlefield knows it, and trust me, so do the diplomats. As the ceasefire/peace talks, such as they are, go forward, the most critical fact on the ground is that the ZSU is on the ground. And the ZSU isn’t going anywhere.

There is a reason Ukrainians get on their knees when a casket with a soldier in it goes by. Ukrainian independence and freedom has a price. The cartoon was published on Valentine’s day.

Also attached: Fresh images of a T-64 B1 crew from 92nd Mech Brigade, one of the best formations in the ZSU.

Three tankers from 92nd Mech Brigade. You want to know who is holding the Russian army back, here you go.

Fake News and NATO

Back to more conventional reporting. During the Trump administration official visits to points in Europe their collective message was clear: NATO and Russia are Europe’s problem, America is doing everything and Europe doing nothing.

Among other bon mots in that vein, this week, Donald J. Trump said he “believes” the US has spent $350 billion supporting Ukraine. Veteran readers of this blog will know there is nothing that supports this, in fact the real figure is about 1/3 what Trump claimed. The only realistic explanation is that Trump simply made up the figure. I won’t bother to reprint the link, just again, Google Ukraine Kiel Research Institute and you’ll see the US President was spouting false information that is a breeze to fact-check.

The point to this section is, surely, the US national leadership wouldn’t just make bald-faced factually inaccurate statements (the layman’s term is “lie”) about the US, Europe, NATO and relative force levels? Maybe the bad numbers about Ukraine support were just an anomoly? Could it possibly be the White House would announce things about something as important as US force commitments to NATO, without any reference to the actual facts on the ground? None of that can be possible. Right?

It’s laughable and its all there in open sources. Take away the air power, and US conventional force levels in Europe are a joke. US air power in the NATO space is only a slightly more credible fighting force, but only slightly.

The overall numbers are pretty much indisputable. This big US military shift away from Europe the Republicans are warning about? The line about Europe suddenly being left to deal with Russia on its own? The story that Europe is doing nothing and America is doing everything?

Hogwash. Force in theater, the Americans are close to not in Europe already. The narrative about America propping up NATO with major forces, that’s just a fraud. You don’t have to believe me. Just count the combat brigades and the fighter squadrons.

Sure, there’s a residual US force in Europe that operates air bases the Americans need for deployments elsewhere, and there’s a big training infrastructure. But battle-ready combat units that deter Russia? The American presence in Europe is somewhere between a minority tripwire component, and a joke. Map attached to show where the Americans are and aren’t.

Image I swiped from the internet showing where US forces are in Europe. The key bit is, it’s heavily admin, trainers and airfield statff. The only real fighting component suitable for deterring Russia is the bit in Poland.

In detail, ground forces, the US has, at best, in Europe, three ground combat brigades and a single Corps HQ. One of those brigades, 173rd Airborne, is a Africa/Middle East contingency formation based in Vincenza Italy. They train to jump into desert/hot places and wear sunglasses all the time. Fighting the Russian army isn’t their job. Even if they did in a major conventional fight they would get ground down very quickly, they lack the armor and firepower for long-term heavy combat.

North of the Alps, the superpower United States fields exactly one combat brigade permanently. This is Second Cavalry, a Stryker unit based in Germany. They are a fine unit, their training is excellent, they have a distinguished history (Robert E. Lee was their colonel at one point). But, if you’re talking NATO and deterrence, well, impressive unit pedigrees don’t deter. It’s actual combat power that would deter Russia from attacking.

Deterrence depends, more precisely, on perceptions of an adversary’s combat power. When it comes to 2nd Cavalry, Russia doesn’t have to guess about how effective a single Stryker brigade might be in afull-on conventional war against the Russian army, because the Russian they have fought Ukraine’s 21st Mech Brigade, who are equipped with Strykers, for some time.

The 21st is a tough unit. They are a real pain for the Russian army. But, in modern conventional war, it’s pretty obvious a wheeled armored vehicle like a Stryker doesn’t last long on the battlefield. Too many drones, too accurate artillery, too easy to predict where a wheeled vehicle must drive and then mine that route. Once the APC is taken out, the soldiers are in the open and usually not fighting any more, but just trying to survive. This is not theoretical, this is what three years of war have made clear. Image attached of a 2nd Cav Stryker doing practice war at Hohenfels.

2nd Cavalry Sryker training in Germany’s Hohenfels manuever area, 2018. You have to love the whoopee lights, they’re lots of fun and give Sergeant Majors something to pay attention to, but they’re not really a thing in real conventional wars.

There’s also a US aviation brigade with helicopters. Again, thanks to the Russo-Ukraine War, neither Russia nor anyone else has to wonder about how effective the attack helicopters in that brigade would be in a conventional war. Helicopters are useful but if you operate them aggressively they will get shot down. 12th Aviation Brigade has one attack helicopter battalion with 24 Apache helicopter gunships. We have seen what happens to Russian Mi-28 and Ka-52 gunships. Apaches are better aircraft, but my guess, a single Apache battalion might last two months in a real war against the Russian army. Maybe less because the Russians have tons of conventional war combat experience and the Americans none.

Aside from 2nd Cav in Germany, the US rotates one each a helicopter brigade and an armor/mech infantry brigade into and out of Poland. Their job is to sit in the Sulwalki Gap and along with the Poles deter the Russians from launching a ground offensive to cut off the Baltic states. The brigade is about 3,500 men, about 120 good quality armored vehicles, and it’s backed by a lot of rotary and a fat slice of artillery.

That’s it. One American reinforced brigade. (I read that currently it’s 2nd Brigade, 3rd Armored Division). For all of Europe north of the Alps and east of the Rhine. This is the giant US contribution to deterrence of Russia in NE Europe the Trump people are talking about.

The regular army of Lithuania, a country with a total population roughly the size of Chicago, is twice as large 2nd Cav and 2/3rd Armor combined.

The regular Polish army is ten times bigger than the US contingent, and several Polish brigades arguably are better armed than the Americans’.

The regular Swedish army is six times bigger than the US ground commitment to NATO, and they are a whole lot better-armed. Don’t even ask about quality of recruits. Sweden has conscription and every Swedish soldier is the product of the Swedish education system. This is without reserves.

Further away there’s German, Estonian, Latvian, Czech, Slovak, etc. etc. Brigades that reasonably are part of the NATO ground deterrent to Russian invasion of East Europe. Zelensky while discussing NATO fighting capacity this week said his office estimates NATO 80–82 “living and breathing” combat brigades, total. Of those, to repeat , maximum three are from the US.

Reference the previous section, according to Zelensky, Ukraine right now has 110–120 combat brigades in the field. They for sure are smaller than NATO brigades, but equally for sure they have orders of magnitude more drones and more combat experience. If you count the ZSU contribution to deterrence of Russian invasion of the NATO space, then US claims they are doing everything and everyone else is doing nothing look even more loopy.

In Cold War days, aside from the massive US troop presence in Germany, there were plans and trainings run constantly to move troops and equipment from the US to Europe fast , and at scale, in the face of a Red Army attack. Over the last week, the White House has made absolutely clear: Don’t depend on that, Europe’s security is Europe’s responsibility.

It is true, the US is not just ground forces. According to open sources, the Americans have in west Europe and Britain one major air formation, 3rd Air Force, which appears to contain, fighting aircraft, 24 x F-35, 24 x F-15 and 24 x F-16 scattered at major bases Britain, Germany and Turkey, plus a detachment in Poland. This is a pretty small portion of the some 1,800 fighter aircraft the US military operates worldwide.

Of course, air power is flexible, and Russia might also be deterred by the risk that some of those American jets outside Europe might get transferred to Europe. However, what counts for ground forces counts for air forces. US policy has reversed itself. The Americans are making it very clear: European security is a European problem.

Meanwhile the biggest European NATO nation air forces (France, Greece, Spain, Germany, UK, Italy, Sweden, Poland and Finland, in that order) contain collectively about 1,100–1,200 first-line NATO-standard fighter aircraft. (All of this is from Global Firepower).

So this week has been confusing to me. I have been watching the United States national security leadership go to Europe, in speeches and meetings and press conferences, and watched US official after official (Trump, Hegseth, Vance, Kellogg) declare the US is tired of being taken advantage of on NATO and being responsible for European security while the Europeans are doing nothing.

In terms of “nothing”, there is of course the fact that in Afghanistan about 3,600 coalition soldiers died and maybe 15,000 were wounded in action fighting side-by-side with US forces. In Iraq the figures were about 350 killed and 2,000 wounded, half of them British. Wiki tells me 19 Ukrainians died fighting alongside US troops in Iraq.

But even if you set aside the pretty important principle that if people shed blood helping you then you have some obligation to help them if they’re in trouble and if you don’t then you’re a real jerk, hard numbers, NE Europe, when I count the firepower available for war or deterrence, it’s the American force that’s dinky and unserious, and it’s the Americans that don’t look to be living up to their end of the NATO bargain. Not the Europeans.

Ground forces, the Americans are stepping up not like a superpower, but like Lithuania. After all, the US is a real superpower with 50 regular brigades at its disposal and probably half that again in National Guard. Yet, Uncle Sam can only come up with one light motorized brigade, one proper armored brigade and one paratrooper brigade with missions elsewhere, to contribute to NATO to deter Russia, which currently can only be described as the most aggressive, dangerous and warlike state on Earth.

I call all that a fraud. In terms of serious firepower, clearly, the US abandoned Europe and NATO years ago. It terms of actual threat, the US is intentionally abandoning Europe when the threat of war in Europe is higher than any time since 1939. The US leadership is complaining about force ratios that exist only in their minds and on their messaging butcher boards.

https://www.globalfirepower.com/aircraft-total-fighters.php

Fact-checking the Peace in the Donbass

Narrowly, I’ll only deconstruct one US official comment on Ukraine for the last week, at the end of the day I’m only doing it because it’s kind of personal.

Pete Hegseth at the outset of a press conference at a NATO conference on Wednesday during which the US Defense Secretary argued Donald Trump was and will be an effective deterrent to Russian aggression and military violence. It’s worth mentioning Hegseth considers himself a “soldier’s soldier” who always respects the sacrifice of men and women who risk their lives in combat. This is the Hegseth’s quote:

In 2014 he (Vladimir Putin) invaded Crimea, not during the Presidency of Donald Trump. Over four years there was no Russian aggression, from 2016–2020. In 2022, Vladimir Putin took (?) aggression on Ukraine. Once again, not while Donald Trump was President of the United States…any suggestion that Donald Trump is negotiating from anything but a position of strength is on its face ahistorical and false.

Hegseth went to Princeton, so it’s reasonable to assume he knows that you don’t get to invent history, you actually have to read it otherwise you will wind up sounding stupid. He worked for Fox News for several years and called himself a journalist. As I have mentioned elsewhere, I think it’s reasonable to expect a reporter or an official would not be spouting off claims that are easily proved false.

During the “peaceful” period 2016–2020 and Pax Trumpica that Hegseth was talking about:

- Ukrainian soldiers were killed in Ukraine on the Donbas LoC fighting troops fielded by Russia. About 800–1,000 service personnel killed and wounded

- Ukrainian civilians killed in Ukraine same period from military activity in Donbas were about 800 killed or wounded.

- Syrians confirmed killed by Russian ground force combat activity in Syria over that time frame vary, but seem to be between 7,000–9,000 people.

- Syrians dead just in the Russia-run Siege and Bombardment of Aleppo, which Assad forces also helped prosecute seem to number more than 30,000 people.

- Syrians killed by Russian air strikes — 21,300 (about half were arguably armed insurgents)

So all in all I think that’s an awful lot of people dead and wounded because of Russian military activity that are being ignored, for the sake of the claim that the first Trump administration kept Russian military aggression firmly in check.

For my part, I can add that in Mariupol sector during the five years I was there working the line of contact, as it turned out close to simultaneously with Trump’s first Presidency. I personally came under fire, at one time or another, by automatic rifles, mortars and artillery in the hands of armed men in Russian service. I am willing to bet there was machine guns and grenade launchers in there as well. I got buzzed by drones but in that war not by Grads. I saw houses blown up, villages shelled and wounded and dead civilians. Killed livestock. Wheatfields on fire. Mines. Barbed wire. Not peace. Russian military aggression, anything but in check.

Pete Hegseth, to reiterate, puts himself forward as a “soldier’s soldier” respecting above all the experiences and views of the men and women on the ground, at the sharp end. Somehow I doubt he includes Ukrainians and Syrians. I suspect he has different standards for them.

Image attached, Pete Hegseth and Ukraine Defense Ministry Ruslan Umerov failing to put smiles on their faces during a forced photo-op at Rammstein. Fun fact: During his speech Hegseth told the collective Defense Ministers that Ukraine would have to cede land to Russia because the Trump administration wants to convert the Russian invasion of Ukraine into a negotiated peace. Umerov is an ethnic Tartar from Crimea and so, in the picture, was standing next to a senior US official who had just said Russian repression of Tartars and Russian ownership of Crimea was OK with America. Last century the term for that was “Ugly American”. These days maybe the Gen Z people say it a different way.

Ukraine’s Defense Minister (L) stands next to the US Defense Secretary (R) in a pretty uncomfortable-looking photo-op at Rammstein earlier this week. Fun fact: The American during meetings made a speech that said that the Ukrainian territory that the Ukrainian Defense Minister was born, raised in, went to school in, and where his relatives are buried (Crimea) should stay under Russian control, and what’s more the predominant religion of the Ukrainian Defense Minister’s people (ethnic Tartars/Islam) are as far as the US is concerned OK to leave under control of the Russian police state.

continued…