Dec 6 — Day 286 — continued
What is crystal clear, however, is that Russia’s nuclear deterrent force is vulnerable to attack. What is worse, the attack seems to have been carried out — reports are speculative here — by obsolete Cold War-era cruise missiles the Ukrainians modified or re-engineered and fired at the Russians. Some early reports said maybe it was Ukrainian spies and secret agents, but the general opinion today seems to be no, the Ukrainians once again figured out a way to field a weapon that shoots a lot further than anything they’re supposed to have in inventory.
There are two terrible implications for the Kremlin following from that: first, that Russia’s strategic nuclear bombers, whose protection should from a national security point of view be sacrosanct, are actually vulnerable to pretty primitive weapons fired by a country about one-fifth the size of Russia, so what does that say about Russia’s military? But second, and even worse, if the Ukrainians with their limitations can take out Russian strategic bombers parked on an air base deep inside Russia, what could the Americans or Chinese do if they chose?
These questions are not just military and strategic in the Russian context, because in Russia, historically, the military stays out of politics until such time as the political leaders prove themselves to be absolutely incompetent as regards national security.
As to what comes next, on Dec. 6 the governor of Russia’s Kursk Oblast’ reported a drone hit a fuel storage facility at a local air force base and set off a serious fire. Video attached. Reportedly, this is the fourth time this war the Ukrainians have hit the facility.
Likewise on Dec. 6, in Russia’s Bryansk Oblast’, 80 kilometers from the Ukrainian border and maybe 120 from Ukraine-controlled territory, a drone missed a “military strategic reserve” fuel storage facility by three meters and blew up. The reservoirs were according to official Russian sources empty and damage was insignificant, but there still was smoke and flame, so images attached so you can decide for yourself. According to the Ukrainian internet 10–15,000 tons of military-grade fuel went up in flames. Video and image of that attached as well.
Inside Ukrainian territory, a series of explosions hit RF-controlled Melitpol last night, and also overnight, either Ukrainian artillery or HIMARS destroyed the Makeevka power substation servicing Donetsk. According to RF media the Ukrainians also tried to hit Belbek airfield in Crimea but “all the drones were shot down”.
Here’s my final point. Anyone thinking the Ukrainians will limit the shooting to just the front line and the territory they control should take note. (West European diplomats, I’m looking at you!)
The evidence is abundant that the moment the Ukrainians have a target in RF-controlled territory and a weapon to hit it, they shoot. As the war goes on it’s reasonable to expect the Ukrainians will develop longer-ranged and more powerful weapons. Ukraine has too many friends to face many limits to what components its engineers might get, to build something to hit Russia. OK, not nukes. But not much short of that, is what I predict. The longer the war goes on, the more often, and the more deeply, Ukraine will strike Russian targets. Good or bad, escalatory or foundation for peace, depend on it.
Finally, if you’ve read this far I’ve attached a video of some enterprising UAF soldiers who took the direct approach when faced with the task of evacuating an armored vehicle without any wheels.