NATO involvement?
FlightRadar is one of the coolest internet resources out there, and right before the Ukrainian strikes went in against Sevastopol, speaking of the US Air Force, there were two US military aircraft in the Black Sea air space flying around with their transponders turned on, and one of them, a Global Hawk, spent about four hours buzzing around off shore from Crimea and also Russia’s Black Sea coast. Image attached.
There also was a naval Poseidon P-8 flying around over SW Romania. I checked: Both US aircraft had exited air space anywhere near the Black Sea, by about 2000. The Ukrainian strikes against Sevastopol started hitting at about 2200, and since Ukrainian bombers need time to get ready to fly and strap on Storm Shadow missiles and so on, it is quite the coincidence that pretty much the very moment the U.S. Air Force got its reconnaissance aircraft out of the air anywhere near the Black Sea, the Ukrainian Air Force appears to have started launching Su-24 bombers for a major strike mission against Crimea.
For those of you unconvinced, me and my newspaper, which as it happens has a retired F-16 jock on staff, took a look at NATO air operations around the Black Sea 72 hours before the Sevastopol strikes. Obviously, we had no idea they were coming, it was just my attention had been drawn to an unprecedented volume of NATO air reconnaissance activity that certainly including collecting intelligence about Russian military installations, air defense systems, and possible missile targets in the area.
Obviously, it could have all been benign training and contingency planning, it’s NATO job to know what the Russians have around the Black Sea and to have at least a plan on file about what that Russian military capacity might be able to do and, if NATO had to, how to go about attacking it.
The write-up on what NATO had in the air and where on is here:
https://www.kyivpost.com/analysis/29879
From the news perspective, it was more aircraft involved — overtly, I have no idea what they were doing secretly — in intelligence collection in a single day against the Russian military in the Black Sea region since, basically, ever. This as a major effort and the last time they had even roughly such a beefy mix of collection assets and protective fighters in the air, was more than two weeks ago.
It also was significant news-wise because it was the first time, again in terms of aircraft types and tracks that the world was shown, that French military aircraft including fighters participated in a big air operation collecting intelligence on Crimea and the Russian military.
But if one is suspicious, or assumes NATO suffers from the same “irrational Russophobia” (that’s sarcasm) that Moscow says Kyiv is polluted with, then one might very well see all that air activity as a major collection effort to fix every Russian ground target and air defense system in hundreds of kilometers, and then 12 hours before the actual strikes a Global Hawk reflies the entire region to confirm the intelligence.
If that’s not enough grounds for someone to conclude evil NATO hates Russia and is lying about how the alliance is purely defensive, then, you have to ask yourself why, recently (from March 21) is it that the Ukraine-support logistics air hub Rzeszow Poland got so busy?
According to the flight trackers, past 72 hours, landing in Eastern Poland:
- French government Airbus A330
- US Air Force Boeing C-17A Globemaster, ex Ramstein
- Two charter Boeing 747s ex Portsmouth
- One charter Boeing 747 ex Hong Kong (!), Registration N489MC
- One charter Boeing 747, not clear from where, Registration N537CA
- One charter Boeing 747, not clear from where, Registration N715CK
That’s a lot of air cargo capacity. Of course, maybe all that flying around was just to support NATO operations inside NATO. Although Rzeszow is Rzeszow, historically that’s where NATO sends men and equipment, for operations vs. Russia in Ukraine/around the Black Sea.
If you were a suspicious person sitting in the Kremlin, (between wondering which of your co-workers might want to murder you, heheh) you might well suspect that aboard some of those airplanes there were Scalp or Storm Shadow missiles, or something else nasty, for the next round of Ukrainian strikes.
You would have to be a very trusting Kremlin guy indeed, to decide NONE of that was going to wind up being used by NATO against Russia.
Still, I can’t absolutely prove NATO is giving Ukraine targeting data. I doubt that absence of proof would make those guys in the Kremlin and particularly in Crimea sleep any better…
I like reading your articles. They have very good aftertaste.
NATO hates Russia the same way that one hates a dog drooling from the mouth with Rabies.