April 16 — Day 52
Hi FB!
The main news item today I would say is that for the first time in a month we have some official numbers on Ukrainian killed and captured. In an interview with CNN, President Zelensky said that to date between 2,500 and 3,000 Ukraine Armed Forces (UAF) service personnel have died in action, and another 10,000 are injured.
Before I go any further, let’s just remember that that mass death of all those (mostly) Ukrainian fathers and husbands and sons and brothers, plus the maiming and injury of thousands more, and the devastation and sorrow inflicted on their families — none of it would have happened had the leaders of France and Germany allowed Ukraine into NATO into 2008. I’m not saying Angela Merkel and Nikolas Sarkozy have blood on their hands. It’s unreasonable to expect anyone to see that far into the future. But it is safe to say kicking Ukraine under the bus in exchange for Russian energy was the worst mistake of French and German national security policy since the two countries went to war in 1939.
2500–3000 to me is a reasonable and believable number. It would imply Russian Federation (RF) losses are somewhere between five and eight to one, as compared with Ukrainian losses. This assumes international estimates and/or UAF estimates of RF losses are roughly accurate. In my view RF estimates aren’t worth the paper they’re not written on. Considering the way the RF has run its attacks and how the UAF has defended, that ratio to me makes sense.
Earlier in the day, Iryna Herashenko, a cabinet minister, told reporters Ukraine has about 700 RF prisoners in custody, and that Kyiv’s estimate is that the RF has roughly the same number.
An interesting point here is that if Herashchenko is telling the truth, then, ipso facto the RF reports of 1,000+ UAF Marines surrendering at Mariupol several days ago were lies. If, alternatively, Herashchenko is lying, then it is a very great risk Kyiv is taking (for not too much political gain) because Ukrainian media is independent and that number of UAF service personnel in RF detention will become know. So that is something to watch.
Also, Herashchenko said the RF is holding about 2,000 Ukrainian civilians in detention, most local officials from occupied regions unwilling to collaborate, and half of them women. Already the RF is trying to trade captured civilians for captured RF soldiers which, Herashchenko points out, is a direct violation of the Geneva Convention. But see below for discussion on civilians in RF-occupied territory.
The looming, well maybe looming, RF offensive
JominiAtWar published another of his excellent maps, covering the 11–15 Apri window, so I’ve attached it. As always it’s full of information and many of you don’t need me to explain it to you. What drew my attention, generally speaking, was the relatively thinness of the Ukrainian line, and the relative depth of RF units, particularly in the north-east Luhansk region. This is consistent with Ukraine Army General Staff (AGS) estimates that for weeks now have reported the RF is assembling a big force in the vicinity of Kupiansk and Izium, for an offensive towards Kramatorsk. It also fits a statement today by UAF intelligence, which thinks the RF has assembled as many as 22 battalion task groups (20,000–40,000 men) for the big offensive which will come.
Serhiy Hadai, head of the Luhansk regional defense command, said the attack wil come when the Spring rains end and the ground dries out in north Donbass, i.e., Luhansk region.
It’s worth noting that although Hadai seems to be an active and conscientious official, and that he is in a very hot seat: senior official in a region targeted for the biggest combined arms offensive seen in Europe, probably, since Croatia’s Operation Storm in 1994. Last week he predicted the big offensive had already started, and then he walked that statement back. A man in a job like his deserves some slack cut him, so we will.
Another important point to bear in mind is that map symbols are not all the same, some represent big units, some represent small units, and some are just errors or fantasies drawn by some guy with a marker pen. It is probable that UAF units are well-manned (big pool of reservists and combat veterans, limited losses) and reasonably equipped (some losses but plenty of captured equipment, plus some western tanks and infantry fighting vehicles are probably in theater).
The evidence is massive that the RF units, in contrast, have been gutted, but reinforcements are arriving. A great deal will depend on which side will have more free reserve units to throw into a big fight. It’s hard to say which side has the advantage here because the RF has raw numbers, but it struggles to deploy them in any way but a rigid top-down plan, and if the UAF gets wind of the plan — and we should never forget that the populace supports the UAF and informs on the RF, and also the CIA and the NSA are feeding the UAF information — the UAF should be able to assemble force to counter any RF attack. At least, they’ve been able to so far.
Maksym Strel’nik, a member of the Izium city council, in an interview with Espreso TV said new RF units have passed through the city, albeit not always easily because only pontoon bridges cross Severny Donets river that bisects Izium, and although the RF controls the town the UAF attacks and at times cuts the bridges. The units seem to be drawn from Asian territories, he said. RF authorities are forcibly transporting civilians out of the city by bus to Kupiansk, he added, and from there the Izium residents are being sent to unknown locations in Russia.
Further north and west, in Kharkiv region, regional defense head Oleh Sinehobov said UAF forces had recaptured Rohan’ which, if true, would reduce significantly RF ability to hinder supplies moving into the city, because Rohan’ is smack-dab on the M03 highway which points — please forgive the metaphor — like a dagger towards Chuguev and Izium. I’ve seen mixed reports on who owns Chuguev, but the weight of evidence seems to be that it belongs to 92nd Mech Brigade which, past weeks have shown, is one of better fighting outfits in the UAF.
Were the M03 clear from Kharkiv to Chuguev for UAF forces, then that could be a problem for the overall RF commander General Dvornikov, because if he shoved his forces south, then the UAF led by 92nd Mech Brigade would well positioned to hit that attacking force in the flank.
It’s probably also worth noting that, if Jomini’s unit identifiers are accurate, then it’s worth noting that the several of the UAF’s other best brigades: 4th Tank, 17th Tank, 25th Airborne, and 81st Air Assault, are spread out on a line roughly from Chuguev to Kramatorsk. If Dvornikov goes south from there, then, by the layout of forces, the UAF at minimum has a plan to counterattack from the west, along that line. I’ve created a primitive graphic based on Jomini’s excellent map, showing this UAF option. I’m not sure they’ll do it, but for sure they’re thinking about it.
On the line of fighting itself, today, combat seemed to intensify slightly but there were no signs of a major offensive, anyway. Across Donbass according to UAF numbers in the last 24 hours the RF launched nine “attacks”, none successful, with the towns Rubizhne, Marynka and Popasna seemingly the main objectives.
The Ukrainians claimed they destroyed three tanks, two lighter armored vehicles, two trucks and three artillery pieces and one infantry fighting vehicle. Intermittent RF shelling hit Toretsk and RF forces seemed to be assembling for some kind of move near Avdievka. By almost any measure, the most likely interpretation of this is RF probes.
Mariupol:
RF forces began a hard push against the Azov/Marine battle group in the city’s Azovstal steel mill and port districts. According to the Defense Ministry’s press secretary: “Right now battles are in progress, the enemy is drawing in additional formations for an assault…they will not be able to take the city.”
In a parallel development, open source, President Zelensky today held a national security council meeting to discuss what to do about the Mariupol siege and how to get supplies to Azov and the Marines. Which might be a political maneuver, because unless the UAF gets about three full-strength mech/armor brigades overnight, they don’t have enough force to get through to Mariupol, is my guess. The other topic of the meeting was the Kharkiv/Izium offensive.
Two pix here for my Mariupol friends and acquaintances — first the train station that we used for years and years, and the way it is now. There are many buildings worse damaged, but the train station we all remember.
South:
The town of Gulyaipole continues to be a focal point. The UAF accused the RF of using white phosphorus against civilian homes. This is becoming a standard RF tactic: get near a place the UAF has positions, and then fire white phosphorus to set fires and smoke out civilians, who then can be hit with high explosive. According to a statement from the Zaporizhia defense command, in the Krivoi Rih sector UAF units destroyed two tanks, two self-propelled artillery systems, three rocket artillery systems, and ten trucks. The fighting around Gulyaipole lasted five hours. Javelin missiles took out the tanks, the report said.
According to Gulyaipole mayor Serhy Yamak, RF Grad rockets and white phosphorus shells hit civilian homes and destroyed a farm. The image of the Smerch and the cows is representative but not from that location.
There also was fighting in Orikhova, but no information on casualties. RF artillery fires also hit the village Pologi, civilian injuries included a 12-year-old child, mayor Artur Krupsky said.
RF army recruiting — The first report surfaced today of RF forces putting teenagers in the ranks. According to the Ukraine government human rights ombudswoman, Liudmila Denisova, authorities in the DLPR have begun recruiting members of patriotic and/or sport (i.e., pro-Kremlin) clubs organized at and sponsored by public schools. Boys aged 16 and 17 are being inducted into the military and, according to Denisova, are in some cases reaching combat units. Some already have been killed in action. The club organizations sending the most teenagers into combat are the military-patriotic club “Heirs of Victory” and the territorial defense group “Young Guard Youth Army”, she said.
Elsewhere, there are more “I’m a bad soldier I refused to fight in Ukraine” stamps showing up in RF service member pay books, image attached.
In Kherson, RF authorities are handing out flyers explaining that RF occupying forces are here to help and thank heavens because Ukraine was close to being taken over by the Americans and NATO. How does the RF believe this stuff, you ask? My answer is probably no one in the RF chain of command does, they are just passing on the fake pretext to others, just like they are accepting fake pretexts to do their jobs. Do not underestimate the ability of a large authoritarian organization to accept lies long term. Cognitive dissonance can go on for years, unless something painful happens to wrench the dissonant back to reality. Image of flyer attached.
USA — According to the Gray Lady (New York Times) the US has agreed to send Ukraine anti-ship missiles meaning, since it’s the Americans, there’s a reasonable chance the weapons will get into the hands of Ukrainian troops with some dispatch. Almost certainly they will be Harpoon missiles, an older anti-ship missile than the Ukrainian Neptune missiles that sank the Moskva, but tested in battle. As with all American military equipment, the real question s how many: a few will make the RF navy be a bit more careful, and a massive amount would literally change the balance of naval power in the Black Sea. With enough Harpoons, Ukraine would almost not need a navy, and the Russian Black Sea Fleet would have to evacuate Sevastopol and spend most of its time hiding in Novorossisk. It would take a lot of Harpoons but — and this is the thing about the Americans — it’s not like they don’t have the missiles.
I’ll leave you with a video of Paladin 155mm howitzers observed heading east in a Polish rail station. There is a reasonable chance that these weapons are headed for Ukraine: the Americans promised them and Zelensky is saying over and over, Ukraine needs heavy weapons now.