Hi All!
Drones dominated the week. Thankfully the Americans are distracted by Iran and so we have had a break from “peacemaking” in the Russo-Ukraine War.
The Front
Without question the big news this week on the front is that the Russians have widely confirmed what we were hearing bits and pieces of from the Ukrainian side for a couple of weeks now: Right now on the battlefield level the Ukrainians have a powerful drone advantage, this is numbers AND quality.
There is still some debate on the details but in general the Russians are complaining Ukrainian drones are flying about twice as deeply into the Russian rear area as before, their overall numbers have doubled, the drones often are silent until the final attack, the drones are not picked up on practically all Russian electronics detection gear, and the drones seem very resistant to jamming.
Details on the Ukrainian drone advantage, now I would say confirmed, are here:
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/73593
Along the line the situation seems largely unchanged but with small Ukrainian advances in several sectors and small Russian advances in a few.
Pokrovsk sector — On Sunday ZSU forces cleared the village Novopidhorodne in house-to-house fighting. On Tuesday there are reports they entered the village Nikiforivka, this on the Kramatorsk axis. On Wednesday ZSU units were spotted moving in Fedeivka Druha and Lipivka; this is more or less on the M03 to Sloviansk. On Friday reports appeared Russian forces have captured the village of Berestok, Kostyantynivka sector. The impression is more Ukrainian activity and progress but that may be driven by reports available than real situation.
Kharkiv sector — On Monday ZSU units captured the village Ambarne with 129 Mech Brigade getting credit. This information from the drone unit Ravens. There was a report Russia’s 71st Motorized Rifle Division transferred to Vovchansk; whether this is to increase pressure or hold the Ukrainians back is not clear.
Kupyansk sector — Russians reported pushing into the village Pischane, on Wednesday. On Friday reports showed up that 9th SBS Brigade (formerly “Vinnytsia Scythians”, 59th Brigade) deployed to Kupyansk. I’ve included a publicity photo of Syrsky during a front-line visit, note that Robert Brovdi SBS troops commander is with him. This is modern war; you have the army commander visiting a (I assume corps/brigade HQ, he has the SBS troops commander in tow, they together decide resources for future fighting. From a Cold War perspective, Syrksy and the ZSU are treating drone brigades very much like 20th century artillery brigades. It is astounding to me that other armies don’t do this also. But they will.
Zaporizhzhia sector — More Ukrainian progress around Stepanohirsk but details limited. Reportedly 5th Assault Brigade was transferred somewhere near Huliaipole. This brings up another Syrsky-related point. In an interview on Tuesday he claimed the ZSU had taken away the initiative from Russia and the ZSU is dictating the pace of combat on the line. I’m not positive about that, but, we are seeing very solid evidence of ZSU leadership now maneuvering and deploying battalions. (Yes, I know it’s called a brigade. In the ZSU to translate field strength to NATO peacetime strength, give the unit you’re talking about a 66 percent haircut and you’ll be close.
Sumy sector — Reportedly 76th Rocket and Artillery Brigade deployed here, this is consistent with the observed Russian strategy of trying to make Ukrainian border regions unlivable.
Ukraine Bombarding Russia
Another week of intense operations. Historically we are witnessing the still-slow but nevertheless relentless demolition of a major state’s capacity to fight a war, by a state one quarter its size. If you don’t feel like reading this section closely, the main point is: This isn’t a one-off, think week after week after week, that’s what happening.
On Sunday, Ukraine launched at least 238 drones and possibly 250+ in one of the biggest air/sea attacks of the war (so far):
Novorossiysk oil-loading facilities — The precursor here we saw last weekend with air and sea drone activity around Kerch, Taman, south end of Crimea and the Krasnodar shore, for two nights running there were reports of Ukrainian kamikaze boats out on the water doing something, air drones popping in and out of observation around airfields, etc. Some air defense stuff got attacked at Kacha and Saki airfields.
My working theory was that it LOOKED like maybe there was going to be an attempt at a strike at the Kerch Bridge, but it was obvious enough that it might have been a distraction. All that was clear was that the Ukrainians were definitely up to something.
Which became clear overnight Sunday and Monday with a big, multi-means attack on Novorossiysk.
The main objective appears to have been to take the Shekharsis oil loading terminal off line. This was successful. And as a result as the smoke cleared on Monday morning technically 70 percent — your read that right — of Russia’s crude oil export capacity by sea was dead. This because the damage on the Baltic export terminals, which had been the SBS forces’ big project last week, wasn’t repaired, and with the main terminal at Novorossisysk burning that left only ports on the Pacific.
A detailed run-down of how the operation went, air defenses suppressed ahead of time, what exactly got hit, entertaining contradictions between official Russian statements saying everything is under control don’t panic and an a times quite emotional and panicked Russian internet is here:
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/73343
As to implications, although if given the chance the Russians will certainly repair the damage, this is already very bad, war-influencing news for the Kremlin. If the Ukrainians can knock that much Russian oil export capacity off line once, then trends are they can and will do it again.
Novorossiysk Russian navy frigate — In the same attack, on Sunday, besides tearing up the oil-loading capacity, the Ukrainians sent at least one drone at the frigate Admiral Makarov, eight cruise missile capacity and she bombards Ukraine regularly, and from the video achieved at least a single hit to the bridge. The video is not conclusive: It was definitely the Admiral Makarov and definitely a drone came near its bridge, but the video cuts off so we can’t be sure. Apparently, this ship has been hit twice before over the years, once by a Neptune.
The real implication here is the geography. Unless the Russians cut her into pieces the Admiral Makarov is too big to escape up the Volga River, and Novorossiysk was the naval port the Russian navy warships escaped to, after the Ukrainians made Sevastopol untenable back in Oct. 2023. The Black Sea is only so big, the bigger Russian warships there have nowhere to escape to. Even Abkhazia is clearly in range of the Ukrainian drones.
Sivash oil rig — Also on Sunday, about 80 km. off-shore of Crimea. Most readers will be familiar with this platform, but for those of you who are not, this is a sizable drilling rig where work was stopped probably a decade ago, but when the second invasion happened the Russians started using it as a platform for air defense systems, early warning systems, and a base for small patrol boats. The Ukrainians have hit it repeatedly and at least one time landed commandos on it.
Pretty much at the same time all the commotion was going 200 km. to the east around Novorossiysk, a squadron of Ukrainian robot boats attacked the platform, blew themselves up against some of the platform legs, and launched FPV drones to hit upper parts of the platform. Yes, you read that right, technically speaking, the Ukrainians are now operating sea drone aircraft carriers. This at least in part was the work, apparently, of 413th separate SBS regiment “Raid”.
Along with that, if you believe the Ukrainian navy who put out the video, a pair of fairly modern Swedish anti-ship missiles, named Gungnir a/k/a Odin’s Spear (formally: Swedish RBS-15 Mk.III/IV), launched from the shore also hit the platform, at the same time the sea drones were attacking it. As with the “hit” vs. the Admiral Makarov, a single video is not always hard proof; in this case the navy showed us a pair of launches from the Swedish system, and a pair of explosions visibly on the platform. Probably it happened like the Ukrainians say it did, but we’re going to have to wait for more evidence before we can say we’re sure.
Kacha air base strike — Also on Sunday, vicinity of the Kerch strait, a “drone” struck, hit, damaged and set afire the Volgo-Balt 138, a 3,000 ton general cargo ship usually used to ship grain from a small regional port to a larger international port where the grain is collected and sent abroad on a big carrier. The Ukrainians consider ships like this fair game because a portion of the grain Russia exports via the Black Sea comes from Ukrainian regions occupied by Russia, which the Ukrainians see as theft and piracy. For the record Russian media called it a “terrorist attack”.
Three crew died and nine were injured in the strike and subsequent fire. The survivors abandoned ship, made they way to Kerch, and in due course the local authorities sent out a tug to try and bring the ship, now drifting, back into port. This failed and and the ship sank.
That all was just one Sunday. If someone tells you Ukraine is losing, tell that someone about Apr. 5 2026. If you want a textbook example of a complex, multi-faceted, tri-dimensional Ukrainian strike operation that required very precise timing and weeks of preparation, that night was one for the history books.
Other SBS Operations
Tuesday — Yet more strikes vs. Ust-Luga in the Baltic raising the attack count against that particular facility to six in the past ten days.
Wednesday — HUR special forces use anti-ship drones to hit and according to them put out of action for good the last railcar-capable ferry left in the Kerch region, a ship called the Slavyanin. According to HUR it sank, according to Russian mil-bloggers it was “damaged somewhat”.
This is a logistically critical ship because if the Kerch bridge were to stop existing then it is only by ships like the Slavyanin that Russia could move heavy freight, by sea, from the Russian mainland into Crimea. I think it should be evident, but it’s worth repeating, that sea logistics are life or death for Russia’s hold on Crimea, because the other route into the peninsula — by land via the Tavria steppe westwards from Mariupol and then south — is fully within the range of Ukrainian drones, and the railroad has been hit so often that when the Russians try to run a train along it the result is more than a little like a shooting gallery.
Great stuff. Thank you.
Thanks for this report upbeat with lots of interesting things